#SP500 = Monthly Analysis = 28.02.2022 #SPX $SPY $DIA #ES_F $NDX $QQQ #DAX #NIKKEI #FTSE #CAC40 #ASX200

All major global indices closed February in unison with various bearish formations. The most bearish are #FTSE, #DAX and #CAC. This is just a preamble for the monthly analysis on SP500. Let’s have a closer look.

This SP500 Weekly contains the charts and covers:
– global indices – monthly candle closure;
– SP500 – TA and Japanese Candlesticks analysis;
– short and long term charts and forecasts for SP500.

Latest SP500 Weekly:
https://investingangles.com/2022/02/27/sp500-weekly-analysis-27-02-2022-spx-spy-dia-es_f-ndx-qqq-rut-fintwit/

Monthly Candles – Global
FTSE formed a bearish Engulfing that is technically very similar to the one in February 2020.
DAX, CAC and DJI confirmed Dark Cloud Cover formations.
NIKKEI, SP500, and NDX made similar bearish continuation candles. They all lack technical support to be viewed as the reversal candles.
ASX200 is the only one that took a pause (similar to Russell) and is likely to resume the decline.

CANDLES

Monthly
(right)
SPX closed the monthly candle below 8 EMA. In recent history it happened in October 2018 and February 2020. In both cases SPX suffered substantial losses in the following months. If we look at the monthly MACD, it is very close to making a bearish cross and its histogram is about to turn bearish. It looks like SPX is about join NQ, DJI and RUT that triggered them in the past weeks.
Overall, the monthly frame is bearish and a move down has higher odds than a reversal at this point.
Odds: Bearish

Weekly
(middle)
The weekly candle is a bullish Hammer/Piercing Line. While the candle itself is bullish, it is lacking support by indicators and would require a strong move upwards next week to confirm the reversal. Technically, the trend is bearish.
Odds: Neutral

Daily
Today SPX took a pause and formed a bearish Harami candle that has higher bearish odds. Indicators are split between bullish and bearish showing no strong direction. A decisive move either way tomorrow could set a short-term direction.
Odds: Netural-Bullish

With such candle formations, index could rally in the first half of March, but the monthly bearish odds are expected to influence the index in the second half.

ELLIOTT WAVES SP500

SPX
This long term forecast was first charted in September. The details were posted on January 20 and there have been no changes since: https://investingangles.com/2022/01/20/sp500-long-term-forecast-bear-case-20-01-2022-spx-spy-sp500-es_f-elliottwave/

SP500 Short Term
We have been tracking these paths since February 7th. So far, we have not seen an event that would trigger a change in targets.

  1. Purple.
    Main hypothesis – wave C has started.
  2. Red (primary).
    SPX makes a more complex wave B before starting wave C.

    The target area: $3230-80; the most probable – $3248.
    Alternative (minimal) target: $3850.
    Timing for the primary target: March 11-18.

SUMMARY:

The monthly odds for SPX and other global indices are bearish and the index is expected to hit lower levels in March.
The anticipated SPX moves in March are supported by recent technical events in VIX that were discussed here.

SP500 is about to decide what short-term path to take. If a bullish path confirmed, the index can rally for 1-2 weeks towards $4470-4580 before launching a strong sell-off.

Long Term Forecast for RUT:
https://investingangles.com/2022/02/26/rut-weekly-update-26-02-2022-rty_f-iwm-smallcap-investing-iwm/

Link to the Weekly Analyses

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