All four indices ETF closed today with strong bearish candles below respective 8 EMA line. If the indices started rallies four days ago, these events would be extremely unusual in the middle of the rally.
Let’s have a look from different angles.
This SP500 overview contains the charts and covers:
– SP500 – TA and Japanese Candlesticks analysis;
– short and long term charts and forecasts for SP500.
Today $QQQ registered a 50/200 DMA “death” cross, joining $IWM.
QQQ, SPY and IWM formed the Inside-Down candle formations that are viewed as strong bearish ones. $DIA confirmed a bearish Harami of the previous two days.
ELLIOTT WAVES – SP500
This long term forecast was first charted in September. The details were posted on January 20 and there have been no changes since: https://investingangles.com/2022/01/20/sp500-long-term-forecast-bear-case-20-01-2022-spx-spy-sp500-es_f-elliottwave/
SP500 Short Term
We have been tracking these paths since February 7th. So far, we have not seen an event that would trigger a change in targets.
Main hypothesis – wave C has started.
- Red (primary).
SPX makes a more complex wave B before starting wave C.
The target area: $3230-80; the most probable – $3248.
Alternative (minimal) target: $3850.
Timing for the primary target: March 11-18*
*Note that timing is the most difficult part of forecast.
The monthly odds for SPX and other global indices are bearish and the index is expected to hit lower levels in March.
The daily odds are also bearish now and SP500 is likely to continue downwards in the near term.
To get one more perspective for the analysis, I highly recommend the daily analysis of VIX that can be viewed here.
Long Term Forecast for RUT:
Link to the Weekly Analyses
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