All four indices ETF closed with sizeable green candles today and even managed to close above respective 8 EMA lines. Would it be sufficient to maintain the momentum tomorrow? Let’s have a look from different angles.
This SP500 overview contains the charts and covers:
– SP500 – TA and Japanese Candlesticks analysis;
– short and long term charts and forecasts for SP500.
CANDLES & TA
Technically, a strong move upwards today did not even make a dent in the strong bearish daily trend let alone 2-day or weekly trends. $QQQ and $IWM are under the spell of 50/100 and 50/200 DMA “death” crosses. DIA and SPY seem to be moving towards the similar events. The majority of daily indicators are bearish and point further down.
If indices continue upwards for the next 2 days, there is a chance of flipping the weekly odds bullish, but it remains to be seen.
ELLIOTT WAVES – SP500
This long term forecast was first charted in September. The details were posted on January 20 and the chart remains intact: https://investingangles.com/2022/01/20/sp500-long-term-forecast-bear-case-20-01-2022-spx-spy-sp500-es_f-elliottwave/
SP500 Short Term
We have been tracking these paths since February 7th. So far, we have not seen an event that would trigger a change in targets.
Main hypothesis – wave C has started.
- Red (primary).
SPX makes a more complex wave B before starting wave C.
The monthly odds for SPX and other global indices are bearish and the index is expected to hit lower levels in March.
There is a possibility of minor rallies in the first half of the month (similarly to February), but the bearish odds on larger frames should come into picture in the second half.
The target area: $3230-80; the most probable – $3248.
Alternative (minimal) target: $3850.
Timing for the primary target: March 11-18*
If SPX breaks above $4480, a bullish or a more complex bearish count could come into picture, depending on the Friday’s candle closure.
To get one more perspective, I highly recommend the daily analysis of VIX that can be viewed here.
*Note that timing is the most difficult part of forecast.
Long Term Forecast for RUT:
Link to the Weekly Analyses
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