The reality is slowly thinking in. This long term #SPX chart was first made in September 2021 and so far stays intact. Next stop – $3850.
This SP500 Weekly contains the charts and covers:
– SP500 and other indices – TA and Japanese Candlesticks analysis;
– short and long term charts and forecasts for SP500.
If you want to learn about perspectives for Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell, FTSE, DAX, CAC, ASX and NIFTY, the long term forecasts were updated over the weekend and can be viewed here:
SPY, QQQ and DIA closed today with bearish continuation candles – a strong bullish attack was overturned. Bulls managed to form a bullish Harami combo in IWM, but it would require a strong confirmation of the intent. It would be a tough battle tomorrow provided the currently weak technical support.
After a 100/200 DMA “death” cross in DIA yesterday, another notable bearish event was registered today. QQQ flipped the daily PSAR bearish. A death by a thousand cuts.
Technically, the trends are bearish and no bullish event has been registered that would warrant a reversal.
ELLIOTT WAVES – SP500
This long term forecast was first charted in September and simplified in December. The detailed analysis was posted on January 20 and there have been no changes since: https://investingangles.com/2022/01/20/sp500-long-term-forecast-bear-case-20-01-2022-spx-spy-sp500-es_f-elliottwave/
SP500 Short Term
We have been tracking these 4hr paths since February 5th. So far, we have not seen an event that would trigger a change.
- Red (primary).
Main hypothesis – a complex wave B ended and wave C has started.
Minimal target: $3850.
Target area: $3230-80; the most probable – $3248.
Timing: March 11-18
Wave 5 of C is underway.
Possible short-term structure – an ending diagonal for wave c of B that is followed by a sharp fall towards the origin.
Short Term Forecast:
Target $4100. Expect a short-term bounce at around this level.
Mid Term Forecast:
(unchanged, copy from the previous five weekly analyses)
Targets: $3850-3250, or 20-33% loss off the top.
Minimal target – $3850 or 20% loss.
Initially I targeted the correction to complete by March 11-18, but it might take longer than that. RUT points towards April and I doubt that SPX would take a very different path.
Timing is the most difficult part of analysis, particularly for the corrective waves.
For a complete picture, it is highly recommended to read the daily VIX analysis:
*** End of Analysis
Follow the links below for detailed analyses of global indices, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and stocks.
If you already follow @InvestingAngles on Twitter and do not want to miss an important post, you can follow the blog on WordPress by email (free service). In this case, all posts will be sent to your inbox directly.