Today SPX had a good rally, but it was merely a blip on the long term chart and did not warrant any change there. Next stop remains the same – $3850.
This SP500 overview contains the charts and covers:
– SP500 and other indices – TA and Japanese Candlesticks analysis;
– short and long term charts and forecasts for SP500.
If you want to learn about perspectives for Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell, FTSE, DAX, CAC, ASX and NIFTY, the long term forecasts were updated over the weekend and can be viewed here:
Technically, the daily candles today in SPY, QQQ and DIA were weaker than the ones on February 24. If bulls wanted to make a statement, they should have pushed the prices at least above 8 EMA and it did not happen.
IWM, however, confirmed a short-term reversal and some higher prices are expected tomorrow. But, as the damage was done on the weekly frame, a confirmation should also be registered on the weekly frame that is currently are nowhere near being bullish.
We had a few very bearish events registered recently: a 100/200 DMA “death” cross in DIA, the daily PSAR bearish in QQQ. Now it looks like a 100/200 DMA cross in SPY will happen in the next few days, joining the rest of the team.
Technically, the trends are still bearish, but if there is a strong rally till the end of the week, there is a chance of making a statement on the weekly frames.
ELLIOTT WAVES – SP500
This long term forecast was first charted in September and simplified in December. The detailed analysis was posted on January 20 and there have been no changes since: https://investingangles.com/2022/01/20/sp500-long-term-forecast-bear-case-20-01-2022-spx-spy-sp500-es_f-elliottwave/
SP500 Short Term
We have been tracking these 4hr paths since February 5th. So far, we have not seen an event that would trigger a change.
- Red (primary).
Main hypothesis – a complex wave B ended and wave C has started.
Minimal target: $3850.
Target area: $3230-80; the most probable – $3248.
Timing: March 11-18
Wave 5 of C is underway.
There is one strong reason that keeps me from turning bullish at this point and it is on the chart below.
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The summary below remains the same as yesterday. I view the current rally as a “short-term bounce”.
Short Term Forecast:
Target $4100. Expect a short-term bounce at around this level.
Mid Term Forecast:
(unchanged, copy from the previous five weekly analyses)
Targets: $3850-3250, or 20-33% loss off the top.
Minimal target – $3850 or 20% loss.
Initially I targeted the correction to complete by March 11-18, but it might take longer than that. RUT points towards April and I doubt that SPX would take a very different path.
Timing is the most difficult part of analysis, particularly for the corrective waves.
For a complete picture, it is highly recommended to read the daily VIX analysis:
*** End of Analysis
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