#SP500 = Daily Analysis = 10.03.2022 #SPX $SPY $DIA #ES_F $NDX $QQQ #IWM

Tomorrow is the weekly closure of candles and there is absolutely no confidence that the candles will be bullish or bearish. They are technically on the verge and can flip either way. However, we received a rather strong directional signal from VIX and all we need is a confirmation tomorrow.

VIX Daily Analysis can be viewed here:

This SP500 overview contains the charts and covers:
– SP500 and other indices – TA and Japanese Candlesticks analysis;
– short and long term charts and forecasts for SP500.

If you want to learn about perspectives for Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell, FTSE, DAX, CAC, ASX and NIFTY, the long term forecasts were updated over the weekend and can be viewed here:


If we look at the technical landscape of the major US indices on the daily frame, it is rather bearish. Multiple “death” crosses and a very aggressive 50 DMA in SPY do not provide enough confidence. The majority of other monitored indicators are bearish as well.
However we know that the bullish odds are never zero and a reversal can happen any time.

The weekly candles are rather neutral and could either exacerbate the current bearish odds or could flip them bullish tomorrow.
Odds: Neutral


This long term forecast was first charted in September and simplified in December. The detailed analysis was posted on January 20 and there have been no changes since: https://investingangles.com/2022/01/20/sp500-long-term-forecast-bear-case-20-01-2022-spx-spy-sp500-es_f-elliottwave/

SP500 Short Term
We have been tracking these paths since February 5th. So far, we have not seen an event that would trigger a change. The change may come tomorrow and I added a green count for this possibility. The detailed description and a micro path chart – below.

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  1. Red (primary).
    Main hypothesis – a complex wave B ended and wave C has started.
    Minimal target: $3850.
    Target area: $3230-80; the most probable – $3248.
  2. Purple.
    Wave 5 of C is underway.
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I view the last two days’ rally as a “short-term bounce” until proven otherwise. The odds are still bearish on multiple frames, but they could change tomorrow upon certain conditions.

Mid Term Forecast:
(unchanged, copy from the previous five weekly analyses)
Targets: $3850-3250, or 20-33% loss off the top.
Minimal target – $3850 or 20% loss.

Initially, I targeted the correction to complete by March 11-18, but it could take longer than that. The RUT chart, for example, points towards April/May time frame and I doubt that SPX would take a shorter path.

For a complete picture, it is highly recommended to read the daily VIX analysis:

*** End of Analysis

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