This forecast was shared on November 27, 2021. Obviously, very few believed that RUT would lose 20-30% of its value in the next 6 months. However it happened and this is not the first my forecast for Russell that I consider epic. If you look at the chart below that was made on January 5, 2020, two months before the famed market crash in 2020, you will see that not only a 30-40% decline, but a following immediate rally towards $2200 were predicted.
These two below are the charts with the latest graphics made in November 2021 and January 2022 respectively.
While #Russell2000 is probably my favorite chart, there were others: an ongoing call on Gold;
the recently completed 30% loss in GDX that was called several days before it actually happened,
the unbelievably accurate forecast on USD-RUB pair that ended few days ago within 14 pips of the projected 3 months ago level;
the calls on Uranium, Silver, SP500, Nasdaq, USD-EUR, VIX, and many more.
Enough advertising, let’s focus on what’s next for Russell that made several very promising candles and technical events this week.
This weekly overview contains:
– analysis of technical indicators and candles on various time frames;
– perspectives for the monthly closure on Tuesday;
– long and mid term EW forecasts; projected targets.
Quarterly Analysis and Long Term Forecast:
Study on November 27, 2021.
This post is part of the Weekly Analyses series that @InvestingAngles offers to followers and subscribers. The series covers the US and global major indices; VIX, DXY, commodities and miners, crypto, and some large cap stocks.
From the quarterly analysis on April 1st:
“The quarterly candle is a bearish Engulfing. While the trend is still bullish and is likely to stay so long term, the candles and indicators point downwards.
Two strong resistance levels – 8 EMA and 20 EMA, ~$2100 and ~$1750.
We remember that RUT bounced off $1701.
The daily formation is Three White Soldiers that is considered strong bullish. The trend is quickly turning bullish.
The weekly formed a bullish Engulfing with a strong technical support. Note the closure above 8 EMA for the first time since mid March. Expect at least one week of higher prices.
The monthly candle is already moderately bullish. If RUT rallies about 4.5% in the remaining 2 days, the bullish odds will increase.
ELLIOTT WAVES + Classical Pattern
RUT has completed the flag pattern I indicated on April 9th.
Purple elements – the flag and target. Green – possible EW targets.
From the all time perspective, RUT is in the most probable (circled) for the pullback area that was last updated in November 2021! While there is a chance that this is all that RUT got for wave IV, I remain cautious about the possibility that the ended wave down was only wave A of wave IV.
From the micro wave perspective, RUT follows the path outlined 2 weeks ago. So far, the RUT waves look motive.
If the index completes a structure approximately as on the chart below, we could declare a solid bottom.
On Friday RUT closed the daily and weekly candles with very bullish formations. The perspectives for the monthly are bullish either.
If Russell continues to build the waves in a motive fashion, it could reach $2000-2050 or + 5-8% in the next 2-3 weeks.
The monthly closure on Tuesday is critically important and will help to define the next mid- and long-term moves.
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