I hope the alert on June 6th was beneficial for all. The target $6.345 stands and there are signals that this target would be just an interim one before moving lower.
The candle map this week for NG is extremely informational and it provides enough clues about next moves and targets.
This overview contains:
– analysis of the monthly/weekly/daily candles and TA;
– the perspectives for quarterly and semi-annual closures;
– a long term Elliott Waves forecast.
This analysis is part of the InvestingAngles Weekly Series – US Indices, Cryptocurrencies, Commodities, Currency, Large Cap stocks that can be viewed here.
The daily candles, after an enormous red candle, formed a Falling 3 Methods combo that I discussed three days ago. The formation that comes with very high bearish odds practically guarantees lower prices in the upcoming days.
The trend is bearish and a move lower would be supported by indicators.
The weekly candle is a very strong bearish Engulfing that “engulfs” 6!!! previous weeks. The candles is reinforced by several indicators and the the bearish odds are very high. NG can chose to pause for a few weeks before falling further down and can fall immediately. The key word is “fall”.
As we getting closer to the end of month that is also the end of Q2 and the end of H1, the perspectives for the quarterly and semiannual candles should be evaluated.
The monthly is threatening to form a bearish Engulfing if it closes “as is”. In case of a closure below $6.430, it will be a complete Engulfing that will almost guarantee lower prices for at least July.
If we look at the quarterly candles, Q4 of 2021 was a bearish Engulfing. If Q2 of 2022 closes below the 2021 high ($6.466), the semiannual odds will remain bearish and this would be quite a message for Q3 in 2022.
Now if we re-read the daily and weekly paragraphs above, we would understand that a disastrous closure for Q2 is more than real.
And now the most entertaining piece – the semiannual candles.
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