Unless Natural Gas falls tomorrow 18%, it is going to close its 2M candle above Bollinger Bands.
Some stats on the event:
In previous 30 years, NG closed the 2M candles above BB 14 times. Three times it led to further growth, but 11 times (79%) such events triggered strong sell-offs. During these declines, NG lost on average 52% peak to trough.
Based on this data and assuming that the event tomorrow is almost guaranteed (18% loss in a day is somewhat unlikely), we can say that Natural Gas is probably (79% probability) going to lose on average about half of its current value.
Some could even calculate an average duration of the declines.
Previous Weekly NG Analysis:
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