There are several reasons to believe that SP500 finished waves (1) and (2) and is starting wave (3). Possible targets: $3520-3275.
In this Daily analysis, I will evaluate the candles that SP500 formed on multiple frames, compare them to the candle formations in other major US indices and some Large Cap stocks. We will discuss technical events on different frames and provide the long- and short-term targets for the next moves.
This SP500 chart was first shared in September 2021, yes, 15 months ago.
The same chart today looks like this and it is an alerting chart for multiple reasons which were discussed in details in the latest yearly analysis a few days ago.
Today indices ETF made various bearish candles. All four candles closed below their respective 8 EMA lines and the chances of a red day tomorrow are quite high.
In the closing days of 2022, SP500 made a quarterly MACD cross, signaling an prolonged bear market for the index.
The perspectives for the index path after the cross were discussed on September 25th.
The majority of Large Caps are bearish today.
MSFT formed a strong bearish Belt Hold.
AAPL and TSLA made bearish continuation combos.
AMZN is neutral. Its doji can resolve either way and a confirmation is needed.
JNJ is the only bullish stock in this sample.
XOM is very strong bearish.
CAT and KO are bearish, with slightly better chances to continue downwards.
If we judge by this sample, market is leaning towards lower lows.
Let’s now have a look at Elliott Waves.
ELLIOTT WAVES – SP500
The long term chart below was made 15 months ago. The current hypothesis is that SPX completed wave A of IV in June and possibly done with wave B.
I continue to track 2 paths for the whole correction – green and red.
Wave B ended and wave C is gaining momentum.
Wave 3 is underway.
As you can see, both counts expect an acceleration down for the next several weeks.
Target area (fibs): $3000-3270
Golden Section: $3145
As I already alerted earlier today, there is a chance that SPX completed waves (1) and (2) and is ready to launch the most aggressive of the waves, wave (3).
No changes in this section.
The first trading day of the year did not bring any surprises. Indices followed the paths according to mid and long term expectations for a bear market.
The chances of another red day tomorrow are high.
As I indicated earlier, “in order to reverse the long term bearish trend, SP500 needs to develop a monthly, technically supported and confirmed reversal candle.” The index failed in November and in December.
Mid term target (flag): $3434-3285
Long term target (fibs): $3000-3270; ideal – $3145.
Latest SP500 Weekly Analysis – Dec 26th:
Weekly/Monthly/Long Term Analyses (DOW, NASDAQ, RUSSELL, Commodities, Precious Metals and other):
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