SP500 closed today with fair odds to launch a major bear attack tomorrow.
In this Daily analysis, I will evaluate the candles that SP500 formed on multiple frames, compare them to the candle formations in other major US indices and some Large Cap stocks. We will discuss technical events on different frames and provide the long- and short-term targets for the next moves.
The long term SP500 perspectives were outlined in September 2021, yes, 15 months ago.
The same chart now – below. The 2022 Yearly Analysis .
The ETF candles today confirmed the desire to resume the ride southbound which is well supported technically. All four technical daily trends remain bearish and a move lower tomorrow has much better chances.
SP500 closed December with an active quarterly MACD cross. An impact and time and target estimates were discussed on September 25th.
Let’s now have a look at Elliott Waves.
ELLIOTT WAVES – SP500
The long term chart below was made 15 months ago. The current hypothesis is that SPX completed wave A of IV in June and possibly done with wave B in December.
I continue to track two paths for the whole correction – green and red.
Wave B ended and wave C is gaining momentum.
Wave 3 is underway.
Both counts expect an acceleration down for the next several weeks.
Target area (fibs): $3000-3270
Golden Section: $3145
Possible bearish micro path. A move above the top of (2) will invalidate it.
No changes in this section.
Estimates by different techniques continue to point down. SP500 has possibly completed a rather long consolidation and is ready to make a strong move down. The move would be supported by the technical Alert which was posted an hour ago.
There is no indication of a possible bullish reversal on the short term and larger frames. As I discussed earlier, “in order to reverse the long term bearish trend, SP500 needs to develop a monthly, technically supported and confirmed reversal candle.” The index failed in November and in December.
Mid term target (flag): $3434-3285
Long term target (fibs): $3000-3270; ideal – $3145.
SP500 Yearly Analysis – Jan 2nd:
Weekly/Monthly/Long Term Analyses (DOW, NASDAQ, RUSSELL, Commodities, Precious Metals and other):
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