Oil has lost 38% since our call in June 2022, and it does not seem like ready to reverse based on the most recent signals.
___ In this daily overview we will talk about technical events and candles on various frames, and discuss the short term perspectives using Elliott Waves.
The concerns about bearishness of oil, which we discussed in the weekly report, materialized. The commodity negated a strong bullish Friday’s candle with even stronger bearish candle. The 3D candles also confirmed the intent to move further down.
I am tracking 3 possible counts on the long term chart. The red count remains intact for six months. The green and purple can be viewed in the weekly report.
Oil is bearish on larger frames and is now bearish on the daily and 3-day frames. The odds of moving lower in the next several days are substantial. If the bearish momentum holds, oil can try a direct shot towards $63-65.
While oil still has a rather slim chance of bouncing from here, it is in a bear market and is expected to print lower lows.
Refer to various estimates of the long term targets in the weekly report.
As I mentioned in previous analyses, “oil needs to print at least a strong monthly bullish formation in order to reverse this long term bearish train.” It failed to do so in November, December, January, and in February consistently.