Oil has lost over 40% since our call in June 2022, and it keeps elevating the bearish odds.
___ In this daily overview we will talk about technical events and candles on various frames, and discuss the short term perspectives using Elliott Waves.
The high weekly odds, which we discussed in the weekly report, guided us well. Following our forecast, oil continued downwards today and printed bearish candles on the daily and 2D frames.
The daily candles are pointing further down, however, as the commodity moved too far, too fast, and is grossly oversold on a few smaller frames, a bounce or a rangebound consolidation is expected in the next few days. At this moment, it is not clear whether this bounce could develop into a bigger rally or not. The following daily candles will guide us.
The larger candles and the odds remain the same, as discussed in the latest Weekly Report:
I am tracking 2 possible counts on the long term chart. The red count remains intact for six months. The purple can be viewed in the weekly report and the green one (the triangle) was invalidated today.
Oil is bearish on the daily and all larger frames. The odds of moving lower are substantial, but we should account for a possible bounce/consolidation before the next move down happens.
As I mentioned yesterday, “if the bearish momentum holds, oil can try a direct shot towards $63-65.”
Oil has been in a bear market since June 2022 when we called the top and a significant decline. Oil has lost over 40% since that call.
Multiple long term targets are discussed regularly in the weekly reports.
As I mentioned in previous analyses, “oil needs to print at least a strong monthly bullish formation in order to reverse this long term bearish train.” It failed to do so in November, December, January, and in February consistently.
p.s. Today oil registered a very strong, long term event, and I will discuss the consequences in an Alert which will be posted shortly after this review.