Today oil nicely hit the target set on August 1st! And a legitimate question is what’s next.
As I mentioned on Feb 13th, “if the bearish momentum holds, oil can try a direct shot towards $63-65.” It did!
___ In this daily overview we will talk about technical events and candles on various frames, and discuss the short term perspectives using Elliott Waves.
The commodity formed a Three Black Crows on the daily frame. Perhaps it went a bit far and a consolidation is due, but the short term direction is clear – down.
If we look at the weekly perspective, the weekly candles are shaping up as a very strong bearish combo and we will know for sure in 2 days.
The Oil Alert issued yesterday also provided a long term technical view.
The larger candles and the odds remain the same, as discussed in the latest Weekly Report:
I am tracking 2 possible counts on the long term chart. The red count remains intact for six months and oil is down 43% after our call in June 2022.
The purple count can be viewed in the weekly report.
Oil is bearish on the daily and all larger frames. The odds of moving lower are substantial, although it could bounce/consolidate for some time before moving lower.
Oil has been in a bear market since June 2022 when we called the top and a significant decline. Oil has lost over 43% since that call.
As I mentioned previously, “oil needs to print at least a strong monthly bullish formation in order to reverse this long term bearish train.” It failed to do so in November, December, January, and in February consistently.
Multiple long term targets were covered in details in the weekly reports.