Oil nicely hit the target we set on August 1st and is now flirting with a major pivot. Let’s try to understand the probabilities for the next move.
___ In this daily overview we will talk about technical events and candles on various frames, and discuss the short term perspectives using Elliott Waves.
After forming a Three Black Crows the daily frame, oil expectedly consolidates. Ideally, it could take 3 days, but there is no strict rule about it. The daily odds are bearish, the commodity is consolidating before the next move.
The weekly perspective still can change. Unless oil rallies about 2.5% tomorrow, it will close very bearish. If it advances more than that, it will make the odds less bearish. We shall evaluate after it closes.
The Oil Alert issued two days ago provided a long term technical view which we will reiterate in the weekly report over the weekend (subscription required).
The larger candles and the odds remain the same, as discussed in the latest Weekly Report:
Oil perfectly hit the $65 target after a Double Top. However, riding the double distance after the Double Top is not that uncommon. Provided the candle and technical support, at this moment, oil has a better chance to fall towards $34 than to bounce off the $65 pivot level.
I am tracking 2 possible counts on the long term chart. The red count remains intact for six months and oil is down over 43% after our call in June 2022.
The purple count can be viewed in the weekly report.
Oil is bearish on the daily and all larger frames. The most probable would be a rangebound or slightly upward move before resuming a ride.
Oil has been in a bear market since June 2022 when we called the top and a significant decline. Oil has lost over 43% since that call.
As I mentioned previously, “oil needs to print at least a strong monthly bullish formation in order to reverse this long term bearish train.” It failed to do so in November, December, January, and in February consistently.
Multiple long term targets were covered in details in the weekly reports.
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