Oil nicely hit the target we set on August 1st and is at a major pivot line. Let’s discuss the probabilities for the next move.
___ In this daily overview we will talk about technical events and candles on various frames, and discuss the short term perspectives using Elliott Waves.
After forming Three Black Crows last week, oil spent three days consolidating. While the candle today comes with certain bullish odds, a stronger confirmation is required to flip the daily trend bullish.
The weekly closure was bearish and the most alerting at the moment is the monthly – it has a fair chance to close below the 200 MMA.
The larger candles and the odds remain the same, as discussed in the latest Weekly Report on March 18th:
From the analysis on March 16th: “Oil perfectly hit the $65 target after a Double Top. However, riding the double distance after the Double Top is not that uncommon. Provided the candle and technical support, oil has a better chance to fall towards $34 than to bounce off the $65 pivot level.”
I am tracking 2 possible counts on the long term chart. The red count remains intact for six months and oil is down over 40% after our call in June 2022.
The purple count can be viewed in the weekly report.
Oil is bearish on the daily and all larger frames. While a medium term ride downwards has higher probability, for the short term, oil can bounce or engage in a rangebound move for some time.
Oil has been in a bear market since June 2022 when we called the top and a significant decline. Oil has lost over 43% since that call.
As I mentioned previously, “oil needs to print at least a strong monthly bullish formation in order to reverse this long term bearish train.” It failed to do so in November, December, January, and in February consistently. So far, oil is tracking for a bearish closure in March.
Multiple long term targets were covered in details in the weekly reports.
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