Oil precisely hit the target we set on August 1st and remains at a major pivot line. Let’s discuss the probabilities for the next move.
In this daily overview we will talk about technical events and candles on various frames, and discuss the short term perspectives using Elliott Waves.
Oil candles today are, unfortunately, not as exciting as the ones for Natural Gas. The formation failed to confirm a bullish stance and the daily odds are still bearish.
The weekly closure was bearish and the monthly has good chance to close with the bearish odds (unless a very strong rally happens till the end of March).
The larger candles and the odds remain the same, as discussed in the latest Weekly Report on March 18th:
From the analysis on March 16th: “Oil perfectly hit the $65 target after a Double Top. However, riding the double distance after the Double Top is not that uncommon. Provided the candle and technical support, oil has a better chance to fall towards $34 than to bounce off the $65 pivot level.”
This one stands.
I am tracking 2 possible counts on the long term chart. The red count remains intact for six months and oil is down over 40% after our call in June 2022.
The purple count can be viewed in the weekly report.
Based on the wave structure, it looks like oil has some unfinished business a little lower.
Oil did not flip bullish on the daily frame although came close. The chances for tomorrow are close to 50/50.
While a medium term ride downwards has higher probability, for the short term, oil can bounce or move horizontally for some time.
Oil has been in a bear market since June 2022 when we called the top. Oil has lost over 40% since that call.
As I mentioned previously, “oil needs to print at least a strong monthly bullish formation in order to reverse this long term bearish train.” It failed to do so in November, December, January, and in February consistently. So far, oil is tracking for a bearish closure in March.
Multiple long term targets were covered in details in the weekly reports.
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