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Oil Daily Update

Oil continues to sit on the fence. A confirmation for either path is required, although, bears seem to have an upper hand for now.


None of the 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day candles confirmed a direction, and we are waiting.

There is no clear signal for either upward or downward direction yet. A strong confirmation is needed for either path. The odds are slightly bearish.

I wanted to note an important bearish event on the 3-day chart on the right. The 300 DMA (blue) crossed the 600 DMA (red) in a bearish fashion. The event of such magnitude happened only 3 times in the last 15 years. This one is number 4. The potential consequences of such cross could be dire.


I am tracking two paths on the micro level.

Green: possible completion of wave 3, expected a minor pullback into the green rectangle marked 4; the rally would resume towards $85 or higher.

Purple: possible significant move down below $74.

The purple one has a slightly better probability at the moment.

The monthly and quarterly candle formations and a bigger wave picture were discussed in the latest weekly report. It can be viewed here:

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