Oil Daily Update
Oil lost 8% after our call on April 17th and is sitting on the upper boundary of our our target area. Today is the last public daily update – starting next week they will be behind the paywall.
In this daily report we discuss the recently registered technical signals and candle formations which oil made on different frames. We also project short and mid term paths using fabulous theories of Messrs. Elliott and Fibonacci.
CANDLES & TA:
As we anticipated, oil has started a consolidation period, building strength for the next move downwards which could happen either tomorrow or early next week.
Tomorrow oil will be forming the weekly and monthly candles, and, bulls need to push it for about 4-4.3% in order to flip the bearish momentum. It will be an entertaining day tomorrow.
The larger frames were last discussed in details in the weekly report:
Oil perfectly hit the target area and is about to make a decision for the next move.
I am tracking two paths on the micro level.
Green: possible wave a of (2).
Red (primary): an impulse wave (i) is developing.
I am leaning towards the red one for primary and hope oil will provide enough data by the end of week to prove my hypothesis.
As I said yesterday, “oil has slightly better chances to bounce or move horizontally for several days before resuming the ride down,” and we can see that today oil started to consolidate.
Possible short term target area $68-74 has been reached, but the chances of a move lower are still substantial.
Oil will form a monthly candle tomorrow. So far, the current candle is bearish and the technical conditions continue to deteriorate. There is a fair chance that oil closes in April with strong bearish odds, signaling a continued decline. All events will be discussed in details in the monthly report on the weekend.
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Weekly Analysis, April 22nd:
p.s. This is the last week we provide public daily reports for oil and natural gas.