$XOM – Swing + Long-Term Hold –
UPDATE
In yesterday’s review, it was mentioned that a return to this area was very possible, and XOM didn’t disappoint.
At the moment the 20 min tf has provided a trigger for anyone interested in establishing a position as outlined below.
GLTA!
The stop maybe adjust again over the weekend or even the course of today.
Previous Write-Up are Below:
STOP is updated to $110.94.
Red path is based on current PA and can change – this red path is the potential wave one of yellow three down – Target of $92.5.
Today, XOM offered an opportunity to pick up more spot shares or puts – this opportunity was alerted in the Discord room, once the 20 min tf provided the trigger. (Come join the Discord, it’s free with any subscription InvestingAngles.com offers – packages start as low as $10/month).
12 hr tf suggest some caution for our position. (might even get close to today’s highs in the morning session)
The daily hasn’t negated the bearish pressure that’s building. We shall soon see if this path has legs.
If the weekly candle closes tomorrow under $107.90, then XOM will give this red path a very high chance of completing (likely finding support on that MA ribbon somewhere).
PAST WRITE-UP BELOW
The 5-day candle closed as a shooting star/gravestone doji. If it is confirmed with the next 5-day candle, then a short to mid-term top will be in place for XOM. Please take in all the bearish signs from this 5-day candle set up near the highs – it is a very strong “bearish” statement, IMO.
A bearish monthly MACD cross of this magnitude has never occurred for this instrument, but it could be nothing.
Monthly sell side algo targets are currently at ~$96 & ~ $89.
SWING SET-UP
Swing targets (totaling 2) are shown in the below chart and timing is accounted for. Right now expecting targets to get hit by early/mid November for the yellow 3 at $80 and June 2024 for the yellow 5 at $67.
Entry price is today’s close at $108.16 with a stop at $112.15. RISK = $3.99/share purchased. This gives us a reward to risk at Target 1 @ $80 R/R = 7.06 and at Target 2 @ $67 R/R = 10.32.
LONG-TERM TARGET
It is suggested to keep a small bag/Runner (assuming our stop holds), as my long-term target for XOM is in the $40 – $30 range, estimated target is by late 2029/early 2030 – This timing and bearish count align with my very bearish SPX and QQQ charts that have us in a correction until 2029. R/R for this Runner is 17.08+. Because we are potentially in a super cycle correction for a wave two, XOM should exhibit a very aggressive zig-zag formation for its A and C waves down.
RISK MANAGEMENT
Capital preservation is the most important aspect of the approach outlined above, and with that in mind, the goal is to bank profit. If price does fall out of the buy region and offers enough of a cushion to raise stops into profit, then this will occur as to protect investments to the upside.
It is highly suggested to risk no more than 1% of your trading account on this swing and long-term set-up.
RISK = $3.99/share
(Account balance x 0.01)/RISK = #Shares Purchasable
GLTA!
Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own trades and decisions. The information provided above is for entertainment purposes only and is not a recommendation to purchase anything related to this instrument or other instruments of similar composition.
Extra Tidbits
The last time daily price pushed into the MA ribbon, such as it is now, it did not end well for the bulls.
If one wanted to play puts for this initial ride down, then potentially 19 Jan with a strike of $92.5 could be of interest. Only utilize options if you know how to mange them, and as always, don’t risk more than 1% of your trading account on any position, and with options it is suggested to only risk 1/2%.
