BABA has broken the lower boundary of our bear flag, giving further strength to the white path. The weekly candle close is a bearish continuation candle, and the next pivot will provide us with our short set-up for this potential push lower.
The projections above are very prudent given the strength of this potential wave i down, and these targets will be adjusted if/once more PA is developed.
PA out of this i low is very similar to that out of the (i). IMO, if PA stays consistent, then it should reach that area of interest by Tuesday/Wednesday of this week. If it does, and candles support a trigger, then another quality short should present itself. Recently, this instrument has displayed the ability for its wave twos to retrace very deep; because of this recent penchant, PA will be closely followed to see if this scenario will repeat at this potential wave two pivot (red highlighted region is alt. wave ii pivot zone ~ $99.06-ish stands out atm).
An alert will be sent out if/once a trigger is identified in one of these zones.
The yellow path is still probable. At some point, candles will negate one path; once that time comes, we will eliminate it from the chart.
PREVIOUS WRITE-UPS BELOW:
Today, BABA hit the target identified last Thursday, ~$92 region. An alert was sent in the Discord to close out all puts except 1 or 2 runners.
For as little as $10/month, one can gain access to this Discord room and other features on InvestingAngles.com. FWIW – one of the above contract’s profit could have paid for this service for an entire year.
BABA hit an almost perfect 1:1 measured retracement move from recent highs around $102.50. The two most logical paths are outlined in the chart above. The circled region is the 50/100/200 DMA cross/”golden cross”. This is considered bullish for an instrument, so it will not be ignored, and it is the main reason for the yellow path higher. IMO (based on candles), BABA will explore the white path, but at the moment PA (which is superior to EW, Algos, TA, etc.) suggest either path has about equal odds.
Another option for price is above. Until more constructive candles appear, this instrument is best left to managing the runner(s) and/or observing for a trigger for either path.
The two-day candle closed rather bearish today (see below chart).
The 5-day candle will close tomorrow, and it is very difficult to imagine this 5-day candle not staying as a bearish shooting star or something similar (see below).
Note the gap (identified with a yellow arrow below) that could offer some support for BABA. There is also potential for a pivot at this region. This yellow path would create a double top (for the wave (4)) for BABA.
Below is my long-term view for BABA. Final targets for this wave are in the high $20s or lower. The last 15-day candle closed as a gravestone/shooting star doji, and so far, this current candle is trying to confirm its intent.
The aim of the system is to build capital with minimal risk to the downside while locking in profits as soon as possible. If/once conditions align for bullish postures in indexes, then stops will be set a bit wider, but until then, they will stay very tight to preserve capital. Option contracts are not accounted for in the system’s performance, atm, as they are very volatile and not recommended for everyone unless they have a good grasp on how to mange positions with options.