$XOM – Swing + Long-Term Hold –
UPDATE
Still tracking – one of these two counts.
3-day candle closed today as a bearish engulfing, suggesting lower prices over the next 3 day period.
Unless XOM has a monumental rally tomorrow, the weekly time frame will confirm the bearish harami set up – setting a short term top.
Stop remains unchanged until we get another significant pivot lower.
Just letting our positions ride atm.
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GLTA!
PREVIOUS WRITE-UPS BELOW:
XOM could be tracking one of the two counts/paths above.
Today’s daily candle closed as a doji and suggest either path is still possible, but the white path/count has slightly better odds.
If this instrument goes above that yellow line at $107.90, then this variation of the yellow count will be invalidated; if XOM goes above $108.14, then the yellow count is completely invalidated.
The orange line, around $110, represents a danger pivot for XOM; if XOM closes a daily candle above that line, then the possibility for another corrective wave higher increases.
STOP is adjusted to $111.33. If XOM gets another pivot lower, then this stop could be adjusted shortly thereafter.
GLTA!
Today’s 5-day candle (a long-legged doji) confirmed the bearish intent of the previous candle (a shooting-star/gravestone doji), setting a short term top.
I’m inclined to tighten up the stop, but it will remain where it is ($114.44), until PA dips below the white (b) pivot.
Yesterday, I shared this potential white path, and based of today’s PA, this path could be even more aggressive than anticipated.
Should soon know if this bear thesis has legs as the proposed paths could be aggressive towards target.
GLTA!
XOM hit our area of interest today and had a very clean rejection from that zone.
Our stop will remain the same at $114.44 until XOM creates a lower low, beneath that white (b).
Tomorrow morning, if PA dips lower and grabs that white line’s pivot around $107.60, then it will set up the potential for this white path to play out, which should unfold rather aggressively once heading back down.
Today’s 3-day candle closed as a shooting star, bearish harami combo (above). The bearish pressure is building for this instrument.
The above 5-day candle will close tomorrow, and if price closes under $108.16, then it will confirm the previous candle’s bearish intent (a shooting star/gravestone doji) and set a short term top – any close above $108.71 will turn this current candle into a neutral doji candle suggesting further indecision over the next 5 trading days – a close between $108.71 and $108.16 would create a bearish harami combo, with a shooting star/gravestone doji and a long-legged doji (a powerful combo if confirmed).
GLTA!
XOM closed the week with a bearish hanging man candle that also created a bearish harami combo. If this combo is confirmed with this coming week’s candle, then a short term top will be in place for this instrument that can morph into a much longer top.
The 2-day candle closed this Friday and it created a bearish harami combo. Keeping in mind a harami can go the opposite direction before confirming its intent.
The last 5-day shooting star/gravestone doji candle was our short trigger.
In an effort to give our position the best chance to reach targets, the stop will be adjusted to account for this potential wave 2 to stretch a tad higher – this adjustment should give us the cushion needed for the harami’s potential of going higher before confirming its lower path. The alt count that takes us higher is noted in yellow above, with this white corrective count my preferred path.
STOP ADJUSTED = $114.44
This adjusted stop still achieves our minimal reward/risk ratio of 3 or greater.
IMO, XOM could see a small push higher early this coming week, followed by a bearish attack that should put a sizeable dent in the current monthly candle. If XOM is truly turning bearish, then this current candle shouldn’t close over the body of the previous month’s hanging man (bearish) candle at $107.49.
That’s our magic number for the monthly close $107.49… 11 days till we get another great clue.
GLTA!
In yesterday’s review, it was mentioned that a return to this area was very possible, and XOM didn’t disappoint.
At the moment the 20 min tf has provided a trigger for anyone interested in establishing a position as outlined below.
GLTA!
The stop maybe adjust again over the weekend or even the course of today.
Previous Write-Up are Below:
STOP is updated to $110.94.
Red path is based on current PA and can change – this red path is the potential wave one of yellow three down – Target of $92.5.
Today, XOM offered an opportunity to pick up more spot shares or puts – this opportunity was alerted in the Discord room, once the 20 min tf provided the trigger. (Come join the Discord, it’s free with any subscription InvestingAngles.com offers – packages start as low as $10/month).
12 hr tf suggest some caution for our position. (might even get close to today’s highs in the morning session)
The daily hasn’t negated the bearish pressure that’s building. We shall soon see if this path has legs.
If the weekly candle closes tomorrow under $107.90, then XOM will give this red path a very high chance of completing (likely finding support on that MA ribbon somewhere).
PAST WRITE-UP BELOW
The 5-day candle closed as a shooting star/gravestone doji. If it is confirmed with the next 5-day candle, then a short to mid-term top will be in place for XOM. Please take in all the bearish signs from this 5-day candle set up near the highs – it is a very strong “bearish” statement, IMO.
A bearish monthly MACD cross of this magnitude has never occurred for this instrument, but it could be nothing.
Monthly sell side algo targets are currently at ~$96 & ~ $89.
SWING SET-UP
Swing targets (totaling 2) are shown in the below chart and timing is accounted for. Right now expecting targets to get hit by early/mid November for the yellow 3 at $80 and June 2024 for the yellow 5 at $67.
Entry price is today’s close at $108.16 with a stop at $112.15. RISK = $3.99/share purchased. This gives us a reward to risk at Target 1 @ $80 R/R = 7.06 and at Target 2 @ $67 R/R = 10.32.
LONG-TERM TARGET
It is suggested to keep a small bag/Runner (assuming our stop holds), as my long-term target for XOM is in the $40 – $30 range, estimated target is by late 2029/early 2030 – This timing and bearish count align with my very bearish SPX and QQQ charts that have us in a correction until 2029. R/R for this Runner is 17.08+. Because we are potentially in a super cycle correction for a wave two, XOM should exhibit a very aggressive zig-zag formation for its A and C waves down.
RISK MANAGEMENT
Capital preservation is the most important aspect of the approach outlined above, and with that in mind, the goal is to bank profit. If price does fall out of the buy region and offers enough of a cushion to raise stops into profit, then this will occur as to protect investments to the upside.
It is highly suggested to risk no more than 1% of your trading account on this swing and long-term set-up.
RISK = $3.99/share
(Account balance x 0.01)/RISK = #Shares Purchasable
GLTA!
Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own trades and decisions. The information provided above is for entertainment purposes only and is not a recommendation to purchase anything related to this instrument or other instruments of similar composition.
Extra Tidbits
The last time daily price pushed into the MA ribbon, such as it is now, it did not end well for the bulls.
If one wanted to play puts for this initial ride down, then potentially 19 Jan with a strike of $92.5 could be of interest. Only utilize options if you know how to mange them, and as always, don’t risk more than 1% of your trading account on any position, and with options it is suggested to only risk 1/2%.
