The main focus for BABA is tomorrow’s 15-day candle that will close. If it can remain as a Bearish Engulfing candle, then a short term top will be in place and this white path will gain more credibility.
Above is a zoomed out image with the same 15-day tf. Bearish Engulfing candles on this tf have been good indicators for recent tops.
So far PA is responding as expected. There is no change in the approach atm… waiting for PA to rise into our area(s) of interest, with a preference towards this red path/red area of interest. If PA can reach that red area of interest and provide a trigger to go short, then it will be alerted in the Discord followed by a write up.
Puts maybe considered in the white area of interest.
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Previous Write-Ups Below:
Tracking very well so far. Not much to add atm.
3-day candle closed as a harami. Given its current position this could mean nothing or it could indicate a small bullish move up over the next 3 day period, which would align with this count and thesis of reaching one of the areas of interest.
Weekly candle is shaping up as an indecision candle, and the odds are it will remain in this region as not to create any bullish set up for this candle. In order for this candle to become bullish, it would need to close over the half-way mark of the previous red candle; not impossible, but not that probable either.
Seems this instrument still needs another week or so to create a set-up.
Until then, sit on hands and look for other opportunities.
PREVIOUS WRITE-UPS BELOW:
BABA is tracking as expected – ridding the outer boundary of the bear flag up.
Daily candles suggest higher prices are still obtainable.
The 10-day candle recently closed as a bearish engulfing suggesting this white path has a higher probability than the yellow does, at least for the time being.
More updates to come as BABA progress towards the two areas of interest.
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BABA is trying to move towards the two areas of interest (highlighted in red and white). The 12 hr tf suggest this process could have begun today by tracking alongside the white count/path, albeit very lethargically.
Sometimes PA likes to test/ride the outer boundary of a flag, dipping in and out of that boundary many times. IMO, this could happen over the course of this week. My expectation is for the red region to see PA (~ $99.06) before deciding on a direction/path. Candles support the white path, but the yellow path is still in play until PA can decisively move away from the bottom of this bear flag.
This week is setting up for a ton of whipsaw; patience is the best approach to this week, and if a trigger is given, it will be taken – if no trigger is provided, just sitting tight.
Monthly close is only 10 days away and this candle closure should provide more clarity on these potential paths.
Tomorrow, the 10-day candle will close, and if it remains as a bearish engulfing, it will give this white path a very significant edge over the yellow path. For reference, all of the previous 10-day candles that were bearish engulfing candles are circled below. Maybe this time will be different?
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PREVIOUS WRITE-UPS BELOW:
BABA has broken the lower boundary of our bear flag, giving further strength to the white path. The weekly candle close is a bearish continuation candle, and the next pivot will provide us with our short set-up for this potential push lower.
The projections above are very prudent given the strength of this potential wave i down, and these targets will be adjusted if/once more PA is developed.
PA out of this i low is very similar to that out of the (i). IMO, if PA stays consistent, then it should reach that area of interest by Tuesday/Wednesday of this week. If it does, and candles support a trigger, then another quality short should present itself. Recently, this instrument has displayed the ability for its wave twos to retrace very deep; because of this recent penchant, PA will be closely followed to see if this scenario will repeat at this potential wave two pivot (red highlighted region is alt. wave ii pivot zone ~ $99.06-ish stands out atm).
An alert will be sent out if/once a trigger is identified in one of these zones.
The yellow path is still probable. At some point, candles will negate one path; once that time comes, we will eliminate it from the chart.
Today, BABA hit the target identified last Thursday, ~$92 region. An alert was sent in the Discord to close out all puts except 1 or 2 runners.
For as little as $10/month, one can gain access to this Discord room and other features on InvestingAngles.com. FWIW – one of the above contract’s profit could have paid for this service for an entire year.
BABA hit an almost perfect 1:1 measured retracement move from recent highs around $102.50. The two most logical paths are outlined in the chart above. The circled region is the 50/100/200 DMA cross/”golden cross”. This is considered bullish for an instrument, so it will not be ignored, and it is the main reason for the yellow path higher. IMO (based on candles), BABA will explore the white path, but at the moment PA (which is superior to EW, Algos, TA, etc.) suggest either path has about equal odds.
Another option for price is above. Until more constructive candles appear, this instrument is best left to managing the runner(s) and/or observing for a trigger for either path.
The two-day candle closed rather bearish today (see below chart).
The 5-day candle will close tomorrow, and it is very difficult to imagine this 5-day candle not staying as a bearish shooting star or something similar (see below).
Note the gap (identified with a yellow arrow below) that could offer some support for BABA. There is also potential for a pivot at this region. This yellow path would create a double top (for the wave (4)) for BABA.
Below is my long-term view for BABA. Final targets for this wave are in the high $20s or lower. The last 15-day candle closed as a gravestone/shooting star doji, and so far, this current candle is trying to confirm its intent.
The aim of the system is to build capital with minimal risk to the downside while locking in profits as soon as possible. If/once conditions align for bullish postures in indexes, then stops will be set a bit wider, but until then, they will stay very tight to preserve capital. Option contracts are not accounted for in the system’s performance, atm, as they are very volatile and not recommended for everyone unless they have a good grasp on how to mange positions with options.