$HD – Swing Set-up –
@InvestingAngles
UPDATE
STOP UPDATED TO: $330.72
This instrument has been tracking very well so far, and there is no reason to expect that it will deviate from this path atm.
Friday’s close managed to fall under all of the short-term moving averages, and it also fell beneath the 50 DMA.
The above weekly candle close confirmed the bearish harami combo from last week and set a short-term top.
If the above 15-day candle can close below $328 next week, then a mid-term top will be in place.
It is very likely this instrument will allow the position to place its stop into profit by the end of next week. The hardest part is almost in the rearview mirror.
GLTA!
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Previous Write-Ups Below:
The 3-day candle closed today and confirmed the bearish harami combo, suggesting lower prices are ahead.
The 2-day candle closed today as a Dark Cloud Cover, and if this is confirmed with Thursday’s close, then a very short-term top will be in place.
The daily candle closed as a shooting star/gravestone doji.
The combination of the above bearish clues has triggered a short swing position in this instrument. If considering this set-up, one could layer in over the next few days.
Enter Price ~ $327
STOP = $334.16
Risk ~ $7.16/share
Target 1 = $290 R/R = 5.16
Target 2 = $230 R/R = 13.54
Runner = $180- R/R = 20.53
The above 5-day candle will close tomorrow, and currently it is under the spell of the bearish engulfing candle, that is followed by the bearish harami combo. If this bearish harami combo is confirmed tomorrow by closing under the preceding red candle, then these potential paths lower begin to build their case.
Larger tf is shown below with targets for a visual. If/once PA allows for the stop to be adjusted, it will be alerted in another write up.
GLTA!
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A trio of shooting stars was formed with today’s 10-day candle closure, and to give bears a little more edge, today’s candle also formed a bearish harami combo.
Today’s 5-day candle closure was a shooting star that also created a bearish harami combo.
The 2-day candle closed today as a bearish continuation candle (this candle could also be construed as completing a falling 3 methods).
Today’s daily candle close was a bearish continuation candle.
The above is a visual for reference, as last week’s candle closure was bullish and suggested there could be higher prices seen this week. If this bullish candle is negated by closing this week as a bearish harami combo or worse, then the below set-up will gain some footing.
This instrument has tracked this set-up well, and if/once it reaches that green area of interest, it will provide a low-risk swing set up and a position will be initiated. If that opportunity does arise (likely by late Friday or early Monday), then it will be identified in the Discord followed by a write up.
GLTA!
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If tomorrow’s 10-day candle closes under the body of the previous shooting star candle at $327.35, then the strong bearish spell from that candle will be confirmed, and a short-term top will be in place. Any close beneath the upper shadow of this shooting star at $338.17 will allow the bearish forces to remain, albeit with less impact. A close over the shadow of this candle, and the bullish presence from last week’s candle close will continue.
The above 5-day candle will close tomorrow, and if it closes as-is, it would be a gravestone doji with a bearish harami combo – providing a strong statement for bears if this bearish posture holds.
Today’s daily candle dropped below the short term MAs. BBs are starting to go sideways, suggesting a strong move is brewing.
If/once PA can get a bit lower (ideally to that red line or a tad lower), then its retracement could offer a low-risk swing entry for this instrument.
For now, layering in with puts is a strategy one could implement until a trigger to go short via spot is identified.
GLTA!
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HD closed the weekly candle with a bullish posture. Of interest is that gravestone doji from many sessions ago – it’s bearish pressure will remain until a weekly candle’s body can close over the top of this gravestone’s shadow at $347.25 – denoted with that red line.
The 3-day candle closed today and it failed to negate the bearish pressure from the bearish engulfing candle from 3 sessions ago.
The above 5-day candle will close next Wednesday, and so far it is bullish. In order for bears to have a chance at this region, they will need to defend that bearish engulfing candle from two sessions ago. They number for bears to reach is $332.62, anything higher, and bulls have the upper hand.
Today’s daily candle is another consolidation candle, and the daily time frame still remains under the pressure of that bearish engulfing candle.
PA should give us more clues as next week progresses, and Wednesday’s candle closure could set the tone for either bulls or bears.
Until then, sit and observe price.
Happy Holidays &
GLTA!
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HD closed the month with a bearish harami combo – this will require a confirmation with the next candle closure.
The daily landscape remains bearish, and today’s candle could have marked the top for this next leg lower.
Lower time-frames suggest a top could be in.
Given that larger time-frame candles have yet to align with these smaller time-frames, it is prudent to wait for a few more confirmations before going short via spot.
If one wanted to take advantage of this set-up, then picking up some puts in the am could allow one to take advantage of this potential trip towards that white line – keeping in mind there is a long weekend ahead and time decay will factor into your decision on which puts to purchase.
The 15-day candle that recently closed didn’t give a good signal to go short, and this is one of the main reasons for not electing a spot trade at this time.
This 3-day candle will close tomorrow along with the weekly candle – Both are currently bullish; we shall see how tomorrow unfolds.
GLTA!
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The 15-day candle closed as a doji, suggesting indecision.
The 5-day candle closed today as a piercing line, and if it is confirmed with the next candle closing over the body of the red candle, then a short term bottom will be in place.
Until the body of a daily candle closes over that yellow line, then the bearish pressure from that bearish engulfing candle will remain.
Still awaiting a trigger. Until then, just observing PA.
GLTA!
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The 15-day candle closes tomorrow, and if it remains as a bearish harami combo, then it will have a very similar set-up as the last significant top (circled).
PA is extremely close to the area of interest, and if a trigger to go short is identified, then the alert will be send to Discord followed by a write up that will be sent out as soon as possible. The above red path will be invalidated with PA above that white line.
GLTA!
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HD has a collection of bearish messages on the daily tf. The ones that stand out to me the most are the gravestone doji that was bearishly engulfed by the next candle. IMO – that’s a message.
Above is the weekly candle perspective with the EW count. The yellow (C), around $180, is the target – timing of late June 2024. So far, the weekly candle is a bearish continuation candle – I don’t foresee this changing by tomorrow’s close.
If the area of interest highlighted below can be visited, then there will be a set up to go short. Stop at recent highs of $338
In the Discord today, it was alerted to nibble at puts once PA reached that white (a), as this could have been all the retracement HD was willing to put in before exploring lower prices.
If one were interested in puts, then 21 June with a strike of $260 offers a decent play, IMO.
Long-term EW count is above. I will note that if this is indeed a Super-Cycle Wave Two (SCW2) for HD, then this SCW2 should be long in duration, suggesting this corrective yellow (ABC) is actually only the A wave of a much larger corrective cycle that will not end until the end of this decade or in early 2030s.
GLTA!
Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own actions. The above is for entertainment purposes only, and does not constitute a recommendation for this instrument or any other alike instruments.
