$WMT – Swing Set-up –
@InvestingAngles
UPDATE
PA came close to the stop today, but managed to avoid running thru it by $0.35. The above daily candle created a bearish harami combo and was a shooting star candle. If both are confirmed tomorrow then this path lower just may have begun.
No changes in stop or targets atm. There is the potential that 5 waves were completed down from the recent highs, and if so, then there should be at least one more 5 wave structure lower as depicted below.
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GLTA!
Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own actions. The above is for entertainment purposes only, and does not constitute a recommendation for this instrument or any other alike instruments.
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Today’s 2-day candle created a tower-top formation. Next week should offer some more fuel towards this projected path lower.
The daily candle landscape is also getting more bearish.
No change in primary path or targets.
GLTA!
Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own actions. The above is for entertainment purposes only, and does not constitute a recommendation for this instrument or any other alike instruments.
For all important and up to date posts visit our Telegram link:
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STOP UPDATED TO: $164.68 (adding risk)
The weekly candle closed as a bullish engulfing candle. While this candle suggests higher prices over the next period, this doesn’t mean next week’s candle will close green. MACD on this tf is still bearish, and IMO this appears more like PA is back-testing the moving averages, as it kissed the 8 EMA (purple EMA) and rejected right off of it. Also of note, is this time frame recently completed a 3 black crow formation, that is a very strong bearish combo that will require more than one week of bullishness to overcome/negate.
There are no strong signs of a reversal on the hourly tfs (12hr shown above). PA did reach the golden zone and got rejected from there, likely sell-side Algos were positioned in this region. Time will tell if this region provides enough of a rejection to allow the stop to be moved into profit. This instrument has experienced a lower low, suggesting a trend change could have begun.
Higher time frame candles provided the bearish triggers and if we recall these were some fairly strong signals. The 15-day and monthly candles closed as a bearish engulfing candle, and these engulfing candles are not easily negated and shouldn’t be over-looked for their importance/strength – especially when on larger time frames such as the 15-day and monthly or higher.
Having such a strong signal on two significant, higher time frames is what allows the stop to be set a bit more loose – having 3 black crows on the weekly tf also provides a bit of comfort that bearish pressure should persists.
Next week’s candle closure will be key in setting the short to mid-term paths for this instrument.
No changes in projected path or targets.
Order blocks are shown below for reference.
GLTA!
Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own actions. The above is for entertainment purposes only, and does not constitute a recommendation for this instrument or any other alike instruments.
For all important and up to date posts visit our Telegram link:
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Today’s 15-day candle closed as a bearish engulfing candle, suggesting lower prices are in store for the next period.
No changes in the stop, path, or targets.
GLTA!
Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own actions. The above is for entertainment purposes only, and does not constitute a recommendation for this instrument or any other alike instruments.
For all important and up to date posts visit our Telegram link:
PREVIOUS WRITE-UPS BELOW:
STOP UPDATED TO: $161.23
The 15-day candle will close tomorrow, and if it closes as a bearish engulfing, a mid-term top will be in place that could morph into a long-term top (lasting thru Q4 and potentially into mid-2024).
This timeframe has been great at marking tops, especially when they are a bearish engulfing candle (see the two examples below).
Tomorrow’s candle closure could be a key clue for this instrument’s mid to longer term direction.
Another update will be provided once PA suggests it.
GLTA!
Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own actions. The above is for entertainment purposes only, and does not constitute a recommendation for this instrument or any other alike instruments.
For all important and up to date posts visit our Telegram link:
PREVIOUS WRITE-UPS BELOW:
The 10-day candle closed yesterday with a bearish engulfing candle. This tf has been good at setting recent tops, and there is no reason to think otherwise this time.
This instrument qualifies for a short position via spot, and this was alerted today in the Discord.
Entry Price ~ $159.64
Stop = $165.06, Risk = $5.42/share
Target = $121, R/R = 7.13
Runner = $110, R/R = 9.16
Last month’s candle closed as a bearish engulfing candle, and if it is confirmed with this month’s candle, then a mid-term top will be in place.
Potential short-term path is above. As PA develops, this path will be adjusted and so will the stop.
GLTA!
Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own actions. The above is for entertainment purposes only, and does not constitute a recommendation for this instrument or any other alike instruments.
For all important and up to date posts visit our Telegram link:
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Today, bears failed to keep this 10-day candle from closing as a bullish engulfing candle – suggesting higher prices over the next candle period, hence a new potential path higher (white count).
The 5-day candle closed today, and for the most part, it is neutral to slightly bullish.
The 2-day candle closed today, and it is a doji suggesting indecision. There is the potential for this combo of 2-day candles to have formed a tweezer top; this potential could get further confirmation on Friday if the next 2-day candle closes under the body of the last large green candle at $159.
The daily candle closed as a bearish harami combo, that will require confirmation.
Primary path is still orange, but this white count can’t be dismissed – especially when taking into account recent candle closures.
If this potential Alt. 5 path plays out, it would morph this current ending diagonal count into a rising wedge formation that should still have violent moves down once completed.
More observation is required until a solid set-up can be identified.
GLTA!
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The task for bears is simple:
By end of tomorrow, close this 10-day candle under the body of the previous candle at $160.91.
If bears can achieve this task, then the bearish pressure from that bearish engulfing candle will remain.
If bears can achieve a close under $158.96 by end of tomorrow, then this current candle will lose the majority of its bullish posture, and the below path really begins to gain momentum.
Today’s daily candle close confirmed the DCC from Friday and set a short term top.
Tomorrow’s 10-day candle close will be observed for more clues.
GLTA!
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WMT responded very well from the area of interest by forming a tower top on the 4hr tf – there are some hidden bearish divergences in techs, and the MACD is close to crossing bearish on this tf.
The weekly candle close failed to negate the bearish pressure from that bearish engulfing candle that was formed two weeks ago.
The daily candle closed today (Friday) as a dark cloud cover candle, suggesting bears now have the upper hand on the daily tf. If this candle is confirmed with the next candle closing beneath the body of this one, then a very short-term top will be in place.
The 2-day candle closed today as a long-legged doji/shooting star candle. The main take away from this candle is it suggest weakness, just like the other 9 or so similar candles that precede this one.
The 3-day candle closed today as more of a consolidation candle. The main take away from this candle close is it didn’t negate the bearish pressure that was initiated by the bearish engulfing candle from 4 sessions ago.
This instrument is tracking well to date, and if it can reach that pivot at the green area of interest, then there could be a decent set up to short via spot.
Smaller time frames are always more difficult to project, but perhaps PA will do something like this over the next week.
Happy Holidays &
GLTA!
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The weekly candle currently looks like this, and if this candle’s body closes over the body of the previous red candle, then the short set-up will be invalidated.
Because of the ambiguity over different time frames, this set-up will be observed until more constructive triggers are given.
The set up is tracking as suggested, and IMO if this set-up is valid, then tomorrow should be a decent down day.
One could consider puts to take advantage of this set-up if the PA in the am session suggests it.
GLTA!
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The 15-day candle closed today, and it closed as a hanging man candle that will require confirmation with the next candle that closes in 15 trading days.
The 5-day candle also closed today, and it was a bullish engulfing candle, suggesting higher prices over the next 5 trading days.
The daily tf will need to have the body of daily candles close over both of these bearish engulfing candles before bulls can have any breathing room.
Still tracking this set-up.
If a trigger is given, then it will be alerted in the Discord.
If the weekly candle closes over $162, then this short set-up is invalidated.
GLTA!
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WMT is still consolidating. While there are enough counts for this B wave to be complete, and Friday’s PA did provide a technical set-up (white path), I’m not convinced this instrument is done with it’s slight push higher.
I still lean towards the red path, and if this red path (or even the orange) does play out, then it would be an ending diag for this (c) wave, suggesting a swift move lower.
The weekly candle closed as a doji and is likely consolidating before moving lower.
Daily candle closed as a bearish harami combo.
We shall see if the above 15-day candle can close as a Dark Cloud Cover or if the bulls can avert the bearish attack.
The monthly candle could close as a bearish engulfing, setting a mid-term top. If this does occur, it would provide a very great confirmation for a short set-up.
There is no trigger to go short, but if one is identified, it will be alerted in the Discord and then discussed in the write up.
GLTA!
For all important and up to date posts visit our Telegram link:
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The above PA will be on watch for the next two days for WMT. If PA can reach the area of resistance above and get rejected from there, it will trigger a short position.
The 10-day candle closed as a bearish engulfing candle; further supporting the bearish engulfing candle formed on the weekly tf.
IMO – WMT has a great chance to close its 15-day candle (closes in 7 days) and its monthly candle (closes in 9 days) as a bearish engulfing candle also. If this does occur, it is safe to say a mid-term top is in.
If a trigger is created tomorrow or the next day, it will be alerted in the Discord and then via write up.
GLTA!
Weekly candle closed as a bearish engulfing (engulfed 3 prior sessions – very strong statement), setting a short to mid-term top for WMT.
Above is my expectation for Monday/Tuesday PA into that white (c) or a tad higher. If this occurs, then it will likely trigger a short position, and an update will be provided.
GLTA!
WMT is at an area of interest to accumulate/initiate puts or short via spot.
Ideally, PA should reach a tad higher, so layering in or nibbling at these levels is the prudent approach.
Stop at recent highs. $164.45.
If PA can get a clean rejection in that upper boundary of the area of interest, then our system will trigger a short position.
Weekly candle close is shaping up as a bearish engulfing, suggesting lower prices are in store for this instrument.
GLTA!
Extra Tidbits
EW count is below.
Note the bearish divergences in the techs.
If one wanted to play puts for this initial ride down, then potentially 21 June with a strike of $130 could be of interest. Only utilize options if you know how to mange them, and as always, don’t risk more than 1% of your trading account on any position, and with options it is suggested to only risk 1/2%.
