$NVDA – Swing + Potential long-term Runner – Templin
UPDATE
Potential path is above. No change in stop or targets. This potential path fills out the TA for the channel and a appeases a few other TA objectives.
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GLTA!
Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own actions. The above is for entertainment purposes only, and does not constitute a recommendation for this instrument or any other alike instruments.
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The weekly candle created a strong tower top formation, setting a short-term top, and increasing the odds of reaching the next target at (iii).
Targets are being adjusted.
T2a = 330
T2b = 300
Runner1 = 250
Runner2 = 200
The roadmap is below on a 12hr tf.
Based on the most recent 5-day candle closure (see below chart), a bearish engulfing candle, this current candle more than likely will close marginally below the previous candle (confirming the intent of the engulfing candle); if so, then the orange path should begin its climb towards that next potential pivot lower.
An alternative to the above confirmation, could be some sort of a bearish harami combo. We shall know by Tuesday’s close.
The 10-day recently closed as a dark cloud cover and a shooting star. If confirmed, this will add momentum towards the projected paths lower.
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STOP UPDATED TO: $476.10
This instrument is potentially working on 5 waves down, and if this structure plays out, it will experience at least one more 5 wave structure to the downside, with a high probability for extended declines that could last into 2024.
Friday’s candle bearishly engulfed the previous two sessions, setting the stage for a top to be in place, especially when considering this candle also created a tower top formation. This is why we moved the stop – for if this formation fails, then higher prices are far more likely than lower prices from this pivot.
The weekly candle closed as a shooting star candle and created a bearish harami combo. If this combo is confirmed next week, then a short-term top will be in place.
Projected path and counts remain the same – so far, this has tracked projections very well, and we shall know within a week or two if those lower targets start to become more realized.
Will likely provide another update after the 5 and 10-day candles close next week.
GLTA!
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Today’s 15-day candle closed as a piercing pattern. This is a bullish pattern as long as the candle’s low holds at $409.80. So far, the recent move off the low at $407.25 isn’t technically supported on certain time frames, but if this instrument continues its accent into early next week, then the techs should catch up.
The monthly candle closed as a bearish engulfing candle and these are not easily negated. If bears are serious, then their time is running out.
One potential scenario that would satisfy both bulls and bears, would be a nominal higher high, thereby satisfying the bullish build up from the 15-day candle and down (as both the 5 and 3-day candles closed today as bullish continuation candles); this higher high would be retraced back into last month’s candle before this month’s closure, which would create a bearish harami combo. Just a musing for now, but one to keep an eye on as this monthly candle closes.
Bears can still form an attack from certain fib retracement areas that algos like to engage in, most notably the golden zone at the 0.618-0.65 fib.
For now, no changes in the stop or targets. If the stop is run through, then this instrument will be reassessed with the monthly close.
GLTA!
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This instrument registered a significant event today by forming a bearish engulfing (BE) candle on the 15-day time frame, and it also managed to form a BE on the 5-day time frame. The 10-day candle closed today, and confirmed the shooting star from the previous session. A short-term top should be in place for at least a couple of weeks.
The recipe is there to form a BE on the monthly tf, and if this instrument manages to do that, it could likely set a mid to long-term top, especially if this BE is confirmed in the following month.
Potential shorter-term path and targets are below.
I wouldn’t be surprised by a week or three consolidation that could begin soon.
Targets and stop will remain unchanged until more PA develops.
GLTA!
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The first Target at $435 has been met today, with an intraday low of $438.08. It is time to reap some benefits from this position.
As today’s close nears, and if one would like to take advantage of the Target 1 region, then selling the allocated number of shares for this target will allow one to bank some profit.
Although the current expectation is for price to continue following this yellow path, it is not guaranteed price will unfold as projected, and there is still the potential for the stop to get triggered at some point in the near future.
Banking ~ $52/share with two more targets on the horizon.
Stop remains unchanged.
GLTA!
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If the white path becomes the primary path (and there’s a good possibility it does), then targets will be adjusted lower as this has the potential to abide by a classic Fibonacci pin-ball set-up.
There is also the potential that this wave down is truncated, suggesting a swift move higher – although this possibility has very low odds atm, it can’t be ignored. Having our position in profit alleviates any stress associated with this scenario.
No other changes or alerts.
GLTA!
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The hardest part is now in the rearview mirror – moving the position into profit.
STOP is moved into profit and will likely remain here until the first target is achieved or this stop is triggered.
STOP = $490.86
The 5-Day candle closed today as a Dark Cloud Cover, and if the next candle confirms this one by closing under this candle, then a short-term top will be in place.
The 10-day candle closed today as a neutral (or very weak shooting star) candle, and its closing print allowed the bearish pressure to remain by closing under that white line.
This instrument is beginning to turn larger time frame candles bearish. Up next is the weekly time frame and then the 10-day; if these time frames turn bearish, then the monthly close could provide clarity to the mid-term direction.
As targets become more realized, updates will be provided.
Until then, enjoy the ride!
GLTA!
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Today’s PA allowed the position to reduce its capital risk.
The stop is updated to $499.28, reducing risk by roughly $2/share.
The daily candle is a Bearish Engulfing candle suggesting at least one more day of lower prices, perhaps more.
The weekly candle managed to stay withing the upper shadow of the previous shooting star, allowing the bearish pressure to remain.
The 2-day and 3-day candles closed today, both are dojis, suggesting indecision – both could also be construed as spinning top dojis, but it’s a bit too early to peg them with that label until more PA develops.
What is of interest on the 3-day candle chart is this glaring gap. Wonder if it will ever get filled?
The above 10-day candle will close next week (Wednesday), and it needs to close under that white line to become bearish.
The above 5-day candle will also close next week (Wednesday). It has a chance (albeit less than 20% atm) at morphing into a bearish engulfing candle, and if it does, it could mark the top to this Super Cycle wave V in a very similar fashion as the Super Cycle Wave I’s top (see below).
It appears, the middle to end of next week could provide an important short-term (maybe longer) pivot for this instrument.
Potential EW counts are above.
Happy Holidays &
GLTA!
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The long-term EW count is above. If this count is correct, then NVDA has completed its Grand Super Cycle Wave One and is ready to begin Grand Super Cycle Wave Two.
The monthly candle closed today as a hanging man candle that will require confirmation with the next candle close.
The weekly time-frame is trying to negate the previous shooting star by closing the body of this candle over the upper shadow of that shooting star – the number to watch is $502.66.
Today’s daily candle closed as a doji. What is the most intriguing aspect of this daily chart is all of the recent bullishness has been well contained within that large red candle. Coincidence?
The set-up is above. Short via spot from today’s PA in after hours or in pre-market or in the am session ~ $492.
Enter ~ $492
Stop @ $502.11 (this will be adjusted ASAP – this stop should give a lil cushion for tomorrow’s session)
RISK ~ $10.11/share
Target 1 = $435 R/R = 5.64
Target 2 = $410 R/R = 8.11 (This target maybe adjusted lower if PA suggests it)
Runner = $322 R/R = 16.82
If all the above targets fill out, then this would likely qualify as the (A) wave down, of a much larger A wave – with the expectation of a Grand Super-Cycle Wave Two that could last the better part of this decade.
Because of the risks involved with this trade, one shouldn’t risk more than 1% of their trading account on this set-up. With risk being very contained on a per share basis, one could risk way less than 1% and still achieve a strong reward.
For example, if one were to risk around $100 on this set-up, it would allow a purchase of roughly 10 shares. Assuming Target 1 is obtained, it would create an estimated profit of $550; if other targets are also achieved, then this number is even higher.
The aim of each set-up is to minimize risk, so it only takes a few wins to grow one’s account.
GLTA!
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Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own trades and decisions. The information provided above is for entertainment purposes only and is not a recommendation to purchase anything related to this instrument or other instruments of similar composition.
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