$BABA – Strizz’s Room Swing Set-Up
UPDATE:
I’m leaving a bit early today to go fishing, but wanted to post a quick update for those following along.
The weekly close will be a bearish engulfing candle (if for some reason this isn’t the case, then kudos to bulls). This suggests lower prices are in store for next week. Looking back, the most recent (similar) candle set-up is noted with the red arrow. If this coming week were to emulate this previous example, then one could expect some consolidation during early next week to the tune of half way up on this week’s closing candle, followed by a sell-off that should create a lower low beneath this week’s close. I wouldn’t be surprised if this week’s candle marks the first of three for a three black crow formation on this tf.
The area of interest noted in the previous write-up turned out to be a very great spot to establish or add to one’s position or accumulate puts to the downside (see above 12 tf). If/Once PA breaks below the horizontal white line in the above chart, then PA should begin to accelerate to the downside after a little consolidation around that support region.
The above 2-month candle recently closed as a bearish engulfing candle, and the last time a similar set-up occurred is marked with a red arrow. This more recent engulfing candle suggests lower prices into year’s end, with the potential to continue the bearish pressure into next year.
The most recent monthly close (see above) negated the bullish stance created from the last green candle by closing underneath its opening price. Bears are in control on larger time frames and on the smaller ones as well.
Given the clues from previous set-ups, the above daily chart captures the most probable path for this instrument moving forward. If the above path does play out to some degree, it would represent the last objective region to accumulate shares to the downside for this instrument before some significant moves south.
No change is stop or targets atm.
For all the latest articles and set-ups visit the below link: https://investingangles.com/strizz-trade/
GLTA!
Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own actions. The above is for entertainment purposes only, and does not constitute a recommendation for this instrument or any other alike instruments.
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PREVIOUS WRITE-UPS BELOW:
The potential short-term count/path is above. The area of interest is highlighted, and if one were looking to add to or establish a position, then this region offers a low-risk area to do so, esp. when combined with some candle triggers on a 2hr tf or above.
No change in stop or targets.
For all the latest articles and set-ups visit the below link: https://investingangles.com/strizz-trade/
GLTA!
Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own actions. The above is for entertainment purposes only, and does not constitute a recommendation for this instrument or any other alike instruments.
For all important and up to date posts visit our Telegram link:
PREVIOUS WRITE-UPS BELOW:
The lower time frame (15 min.) is shown above so one can observe the overlap in waves off the recent low. The primary count is this yellow corrective count higher. There is the potential for this to be impulsive off the lows (white count) – and the 2 and 3-day candle closures support this potential, as both were bullish engulfing candles (shown below), suggesting higher prices by the end of the week.
The yellow path could potentially fill/play out as depicted below and satisfy the recent bullish candle closures.
The stop is basically at break even ($88.33) and will remain unchanged.
Until a higher high is created with a weekly candle that supports a trend change, the primary path will remain as is – down.
The above 2-month candle will close in 7 days. If it remains a bearish engulfing candle, then a mid-term top is in place. The monthly time frames and lower are all bearish. Eyes will be on the weekly close, to see if bulls can begin a counter-attack by engulfing last week’s candle.
GLTA!
Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own actions. The above is for entertainment purposes only, and does not constitute a recommendation for this instrument or any other alike instruments.
For all important and up to date posts visit our Telegram link:
PREVIOUS WRITE-UPS BELOW:
This instrument closed the weekly with a gravestone doji. This candle was rejected right at the MA ribbon, and this could have started an EW wave three down – if so, expect some strong moves south over the next two to four weeks.
This instrument has tracked the projected path fairly well, and on Wednesday of this week, it offered an opportunity to short via spot – this opportunity was noted in Discord during the morning with a stop set at recent highs of $94.46.
Targets have been adjusted based on current PA and so has the STOP.
Entry ~ $87.79
STOP = $88.33 (updated), Previous Stop = $94.46
Risk = $0.54 (currently), Previous Risk = $6.67 (used for calculating R/R below)
Target 1 = $67, R/R = 3.11
Target 2 = $45, R/R = 6.4
Runner = $14, R/R = 11.06
The potential wave three, mentioned in the opening paragraph, is the white path depicted below.
Thursday’s candle created a tower top/evening star formation, and it is because of this tower top/evening star formation that the stop has been adjusted lower. Losing this formation suggest higher prices are more probable from this pivot point.
If this instrument does follow this white path, I wouldn’t be surprised to see PA remain in the downward sloping channel for the majority of this path.
3-day candles have been very informative for this instrument as of late, and this candle (above) will close on Monday. If it closes as a bearish engulfing candle, then a very short-term top will be in place. I zoomed out a tad so one can observe the other times bearish engulfing candles have closed on this tf – they always have had some follow-thru lower.
The 2-day candle will close on Monday as well, and if the previous Dark Cloud Cover is confirmed, then this will strengthen the case for bears and the white path.
The above 5-day candle will close on Wednesday along with the 10-day candle (not shown). This 5-day candle is one of the reasons for the green path higher, as it bullishly engulfed the body of the previous bearish candle, a shooting star/gravestone doji, but it didn’t engulf the upper shadow of this bearish candle – allowing its bearish pressure to remain. I’m skeptical of the current candle morphing into something bullish, but anything is possible in markets, especially when given a three day window. If the current candle bearishly engulfs the previous candle, it would be a very important clue that bears are in control and bulls will likely have to wait for another significant region to create a counter-offensive – this region is most likely around the last significant low at $60. If this candle morphs into something bullish, then the stop will likely get hit, and this instrument will be reassessed with the monthly candle close.
2-month tf is above – if it closes as a bearish engulfing candle at month’s end, then this white count gets a ton of support. One can also see the support offered around $60 region.
Last month’s candle close (shown above) confirmed the bearish harami combo, and so far this month is setting up a three black crows formation. If this formation completes at month’s end, then this yellow path has a very strong chance at playing out to some degree.
EW count is above.
If interested in this set-up, please read the Previous Write-Ups as I’ve been tracking this since the most recent top.
One shouldn’t risk more than 1% on any set-up.
GLTA!
Trading involves risks, and you are responsible for your own actions. The above is for entertainment purposes only, and does not constitute a recommendation for this instrument or any other alike instruments.
For all important and up to date posts visit our Telegram link:
PREVIOUS WRITE-UPS BELOW:
The 15-day candle closed today, and it is a long-legged doji, suggesting indecision.
The 5-day candle closed today, and it is bullish, suggesting higher prices over the next 5 day period.
No changes in the current approach – consider nibbling at puts in the white area of interest, and look for a trigger to go short via spot in the red area of interest.
If PA suggests the yellow path is to become the primary path, then adapt and look for opportunities along that route.
GLTA!
For all important and up to date posts visit our Telegram link:
Previous Write-Ups Below:
The main focus for BABA is tomorrow’s 15-day candle that will close. If it can remain as a Bearish Engulfing candle, then a short term top will be in place and this white path will gain more credibility.
Above is a zoomed out image with the same 15-day tf. Bearish Engulfing candles on this tf have been good indicators for recent tops.
So far PA is responding as expected. There is no change in the approach atm… waiting for PA to rise into our area(s) of interest, with a preference towards this red path/red area of interest. If PA can reach that red area of interest and provide a trigger to go short, then it will be alerted in the Discord followed by a write up.
Puts maybe considered in the white area of interest.
For all important and up to date posts visit our Telegram link:
Previous Write-Ups Below:
Tracking very well so far. Not much to add atm.
3-day candle closed as a harami. Given its current position this could mean nothing or it could indicate a small bullish move up over the next 3 day period, which would align with this count and thesis of reaching one of the areas of interest.
Weekly candle is shaping up as an indecision candle, and the odds are it will remain in this region as not to create any bullish set up for this candle. In order for this candle to become bullish, it would need to close over the half-way mark of the previous red candle; not impossible, but not that probable either.
Seems this instrument still needs another week or so to create a set-up.
Until then, sit on hands and look for other opportunities.
GLTA!
PREVIOUS WRITE-UPS BELOW:
BABA is tracking as expected – ridding the outer boundary of the bear flag up.
Daily candles suggest higher prices are still obtainable.
The 10-day candle recently closed as a bearish engulfing suggesting this white path has a higher probability than the yellow does, at least for the time being.
More updates to come as BABA progress towards the two areas of interest.
For as little as $10/month, one can gain daily access to insights like this from InvestingAngles.com.
GLTA!
BABA is trying to move towards the two areas of interest (highlighted in red and white). The 12 hr tf suggest this process could have begun today by tracking alongside the white count/path, albeit very lethargically.
Sometimes PA likes to test/ride the outer boundary of a flag, dipping in and out of that boundary many times. IMO, this could happen over the course of this week. My expectation is for the red region to see PA (~ $99.06) before deciding on a direction/path. Candles support the white path, but the yellow path is still in play until PA can decisively move away from the bottom of this bear flag.
This week is setting up for a ton of whipsaw; patience is the best approach to this week, and if a trigger is given, it will be taken – if no trigger is provided, just sitting tight.
Monthly close is only 10 days away and this candle closure should provide more clarity on these potential paths.
Tomorrow, the 10-day candle will close, and if it remains as a bearish engulfing, it will give this white path a very significant edge over the yellow path. For reference, all of the previous 10-day candles that were bearish engulfing candles are circled below. Maybe this time will be different?
For as little as $10/month you can get access to insights like this plus much more at InvestingAngles.com
GLTA!
PREVIOUS WRITE-UPS BELOW:
BABA has broken the lower boundary of our bear flag, giving further strength to the white path. The weekly candle close is a bearish continuation candle, and the next pivot will provide us with our short set-up for this potential push lower.
The projections above are very prudent given the strength of this potential wave i down, and these targets will be adjusted if/once more PA is developed.
PA out of this i low is very similar to that out of the (i). IMO, if PA stays consistent, then it should reach that area of interest by Tuesday/Wednesday of this week. If it does, and candles support a trigger, then another quality short should present itself. Recently, this instrument has displayed the ability for its wave twos to retrace very deep; because of this recent penchant, PA will be closely followed to see if this scenario will repeat at this potential wave two pivot (red highlighted region is alt. wave ii pivot zone ~ $99.06-ish stands out atm).
An alert will be sent out if/once a trigger is identified in one of these zones.
The yellow path is still probable. At some point, candles will negate one path; once that time comes, we will eliminate it from the chart.
Today, BABA hit the target identified last Thursday, ~$92 region. An alert was sent in the Discord to close out all puts except 1 or 2 runners.
For as little as $10/month, one can gain access to this Discord room and other features on InvestingAngles.com. FWIW – one of the above contract’s profit could have paid for this service for an entire year.
BABA hit an almost perfect 1:1 measured retracement move from recent highs around $102.50. The two most logical paths are outlined in the chart above. The circled region is the 50/100/200 DMA cross/”golden cross”. This is considered bullish for an instrument, so it will not be ignored, and it is the main reason for the yellow path higher. IMO (based on candles), BABA will explore the white path, but at the moment PA (which is superior to EW, Algos, TA, etc.) suggest either path has about equal odds.
Another option for price is above. Until more constructive candles appear, this instrument is best left to managing the runner(s) and/or observing for a trigger for either path.
The two-day candle closed rather bearish today (see below chart).
The 5-day candle will close tomorrow, and it is very difficult to imagine this 5-day candle not staying as a bearish shooting star or something similar (see below).
Note the gap (identified with a yellow arrow below) that could offer some support for BABA. There is also potential for a pivot at this region. This yellow path would create a double top (for the wave (4)) for BABA.
Below is my long-term view for BABA. Final targets for this wave are in the high $20s or lower. The last 15-day candle closed as a gravestone/shooting star doji, and so far, this current candle is trying to confirm its intent.
System Goal:
The aim of the system is to build capital with minimal risk to the downside while locking in profits as soon as possible. If/once conditions align for bullish postures in indexes, then stops will be set a bit wider, but until then, they will stay very tight to preserve capital. Option contracts are not accounted for in the system’s performance, atm, as they are very volatile and not recommended for everyone unless they have a good grasp on how to mange positions with options.
