After today’s closure, I added an alt path to the Long Term Forecast charted on April 18. The path outlines the case of breaking below 20k. The odds of such event are increasing.
Let’s explore today’s closure from different Angles.
Forecasts from the previous updates:
” So far BTC is chugging along an ideal channel down. Elliott Waves suggest that wave v = wave i, or ~$33215 as per chart…. If BTC hits a new low in the 31k-34k area, expect it to retrace to 36k-38k in the next few days. After that it could start a sharp move down….”
Wave v bottomed at 33378, than BTC rallied to 36098, now it is falling. Well, I missed the bottom of wave i by 163 points. Definitely there is a room for improvement.
The June’s candle continues to be under a strong bearish pressure from the Tower Top combo in May. There is a good chance the monthly PSAR flips bearish tomorrow.
So far, the Gravestone Doji plays well. We will see how the week closes.
Odds: Strong Bearish
Today’s candle is a Bearish Maribozu, a very strong continuation candle. Nothing more to add in this section.
Odds: Strong Bearish
This is a copy-paste from the daily analysis several days ago:
BTC “could hit $31000-32000 in the next few days. That would be wave 1 out of expected 5 down.
If this is the case, the most typical targets would be:
- (C) = 0.618 x (A): $19975.
Note that this target is just a tad above the Long Term support of $19870.6. If this support breaks, $BTC could see a 4-digit prices in the nearest future. The long term waves/forecast will require a full recount if LT support breaks.
- (C) = 0.786 x (A): $14176.
- (C) = 1.0 x (A): $6789. “
Long Term Forecast:
So far, the price remains in the large blue rectangle. However, if it moves below the lower boundary, I would start thinking that the corrective wave of a bigger degree is in play. This hypothesis will be confirmed once BTC drops below the LT support line – $19870.6 – the 2017 high.
I placed the red count on the chart to bring awareness of this possibility. The support would be in the $3000-15000 area.
The overall odds are bearish on all frames until we can see a strong bullish multi-day move above 42k or higher.
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