RUSSELL: Weekly: 26.03.2021

Everyone is probably interested with a follow up on the Alert that I issued yesterday.

The Small Cap index did not close below 2192.48, just slightly above. BUT, after analyzing the current combinations of the candles on the weekly and daily charts, I cannot say that it is out of the woods yet. Let’s explore.


The monthly print will be made on March 31 in three trading days. So far, the range is huge and the real body is very small. Unless the index gains minimum 100 points (4.5%) in the next 3 days, every other outcome/candle would be viewed as bearish.


The weekly candle is moderately bearish. It is red and it closed below the weekly 8 EMA line for the first time since October 26. The body of the candle is entirely within the body of the last green candle – that makes the last two candles Bearish Harami that require confirmation in the next few weeks.


Yesterday’s closure made a Piercing Line (possible reversal) that was not confirmed today by just few pips. At the same time, today’s candle closed again below the daily 8 EMA and 50 MA lines. Also note that the 8 EMA line crossed the 50 MA line.
Among the other bearish signs is the fact that the RSI failed to close above 50 even after that enormous rally of the last hour.


All the above makes me think that the bearish pressure is growing and would most likely prevail the next week. The index might see some higher prices at the beginning of the week (2250 or so), but I am expecting it to retrace by March 31 and possibly go lower by the end of next week.

The monthly candle would be instrumental for the next update on Russell.

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