$XAU = $Gold : Daily Analysis = 19.10.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $GLD #XAUUSD #GC_F #investing

As anticipated, gold formed a second consolidation candle today. The bearish odds are increasing. Let’s have a look at the metal from different perspectives.

CANDLES
The quarterly and monthly frames remain bearish, they were discussed in details in the monthly analysis.

Daily
Today’s candle is likely the second in the consolidation series. The bearish pressure remains substantial.
There is a chance of another attempt to start a rally tomorrow, but any daily closure below ~$1782+ would be considered bearish.
Technically, the daily PSAR flipped bearish yesterday and a death cross of 100/200 MA seems to be a matter of a few days. RSI is flirting with 50.
As I suggested in the weekly report, “a consolidation for several days would be normal. If gold closes below $1758, the low of the previous long green candle, the direction would be confirmed.”
Two days passed. The forecast stays intact.
Odds: Bearish

ELLIOTT WAVES

I am tracking multiple corrective counts at this point. I hope the next strong move would add more clarity. The red path is primary for now, I view the whole wave off the Top as a possible diagonal or a motive wave that is guided by the long term counts (chart at the bottom).

Preliminary target for the next wave – $1650-1575.

The long term view remains the same as charted in August 2020. Not a single element was adjusted on this chart, and I am yet to see a reason for making changes.

Forecast:

Gold was damaged greatly in Q1, 2021 on the quarterly and the monthly frames. The long-term odds continue to be bearish. The weekly odds are slightly bearish.

I expect gold to continue horizontally or slightly down for the next few days / a week.

In order to confirm a decline, gold needs to close a day below $1758.
A daily closure above $1782 would be bullish and would need to be evaluated.

In order to make a bullish weekly statement, the metal should close this week above $1800.

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