This post is part of the Weekly Analyses series that InvestingAngles offers to followers and subscribers. The series covers US major indices – SP500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Russell 2000; VIX, DXY, gold & silver, GDX, natural gas, Bitcoin and Ethereum, and some large cap stocks.
This Weekly Analysis contains:
– an overview of daily and weekly candle charts and TA; perspectives for the monthly;
– a long term $GDX forecast, unchanged for 14 months;
– a short term projection and targets.
This Educational Video – discusses our approach to analysis of GDX:
The Yearly, quarterly and monthly GDX candles are bearish and the long term bearish pressure is substantial.
I’ll put in this way. Unless GDX rallies 10.9% (ten point nine) on Monday, the January monthly candle will be bearish. Feasibility?
GDX made a Falling 3 Methods that is viewed as strong bearish. The majority of indicators support a continued move downwards.
GDX formed a bullish Hammer on Friday. The odds are bullish, but weak due to lack of support from various indicators.
This week GDX made 8/20 EMA and 50/100 MA bearish crosses. All MA are now aligned in the most bearish way.
The long term chart (below) remains unchanged for 14 months. There is a chance that GDX is working on an Ending Diagonal for wave (C) to complete the very long correction that started in year 2011. Based on the projection, the process could take another year or two.
This is a zoomed in the wave that started in July 2020 on a 3-day chart.
The mid term chart (above) remains the same.
Red path (primary):
GDX completed waves i and ii and could accelerate down in wave iii of 3.
GDX is setting up for a strong rally and is working on a i-ii setup. Low probability for now.
The odds are bearish on all frames except the daily that is close to neutral. It will be impossible for GDX to print the January candle bullish.
At this point I am viewing the area of $19-12 as a target for the next move down. Possible timing – summer 2022- end of 2023.
Based on a few Fibonacci ratios, $GDX could also target lower than $12. Low probability for now.
This video was recorded yesterday after the market closure. It provides an overview of major US indices and forecasts the short and long term next moves.
From the previous forecasts: “The candles on the larger frames (weekly and above) are moderately bearish and the long term odds are bearish. The rallies are expected to be the short-term ones. In order to flip the odds bullish in such candle environment, the miner needs to develop a bullish candle formation on at least the weekly frame. There is no such signal so far.” This statement stands.
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