#SP500 = WEEKLY = 05.02.2022 #SPX #DowJones $SPY $DIA #ES_F $NDX $QQQ #ElliottWave #RUT

#SP500 could go down towards $3850-3250 or 20-33% off the top and this wave of selling is possibly in progress.

This SP500 WEEKLY contains the charts and covers:
– SP500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000 – TA and Japanese Candlesticks analysis;
– short and long term charts and forecasts for SP500 and Russell2000.

This post is part of the Weekly Analyses series that InvestingAngles offers to followers and subscribers.

Latest Monthly Analysis (link)

Video:

TA & CANDLES

Daily
SPY daily candle on Friday transformed from the strong bullish Engulfing to a mere Thrusting Line that is normally viewed as a bearish continuation candle. The candle closed just 7 pips below the midpoint of the previous red candle and it happened just seconds before the cut-off. Quite a sign.
QQQ is the worst. The candle was rejected a bullish closure and ended up below the 8 EMA line which is not bullish even remotely.
DIA and IWM both closed Friday with somewhat neutral formations, but both are technically ready to resume the decline.

Weekly
All four have many commonalities such as sharply lower volume. QQQ and IWM are the most bearish: QQQ was pushed to close below 50 WMA, IWM has the strongest technical support to continue down.
Possible formation for QQQ (and others) – Falling 3 Methods – one more week of anemic rally followed by a sharp decline or an immediate decline starting next week.

Monthly MACD chart for SP500

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Volatility VIX
The weekly update was posted here:
https://investingangles.com/2022/02/04/vix-weekly-update-04-02-2022-stockmarket-vxx-investing-trading-candlestick/

ELLIOTT WAVES SP500

SPX
Long Term

As the worst bearish formation – Engulfing – already happened on the monthly, the odds are increasing for this long term bear scenario.
Detailed forecast: https://investingangles.com/2022/01/20/sp500-long-term-forecast-bear-case-20-01-2022-spx-spy-sp500-es_f-elliottwave/

SP500 Short Term

  1. Purple (primary).
    SPX moves in wave C towards $3850-3250. The targets are projected with Golden Section and other considerations. Refer to the Long Term SP500 study on January 20 (link above).
    Timing: end of February – 2nd half of March.
  2. Red.
    SPX makes a larger wave (flat) for B and resumes downwards after.
  3. Blue.
    SPX develops a motive or a diagonal wave off the lows.
    This bullish scenario that is viewed as low probability is discussed in the video.

Russell2000
Long Term Forecast

Below is the forecast first charted in January 2020 and its current state in 2022 with targets for the current wave down.

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As one more reference point, an alert on ASX monthly closure:
https://investingangles.com/2022/01/30/asx200-possible-major-correction-alarm-30-01-2022-asx-asx/

SUMMARY:

MID-LONG TERM FORECAST:
Expect SP500 to move lower in February, most likely in the second half.
Targets: $3850-3250, or 20-33% loss off the top.
Minimal target – $3850 or 20% loss.

From the monthly forecast on January 30:
SHORT TERM:
The indices could rally in the next 1-2 weeks, the rally could possibly experience many unexpected movements (see-saw).
Short Term Target: $4500-4680.
Keep in mind that this is an attempt to forecast a wave B, the most unpredictable among the corrective waves.

Good Luck!

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