#SP500 = Daily Analysis = 15.02.2022 #SPX #DowJones $SPY $DIA #ES_F $NDX $QQQ #ElliottWave #RUT #fintwit

Major US indices today made a solid daily candles that can be considered as a first step towards reversal. Would it be sufficient, though, to flip the bearish odds on the larger frames?

Let’s evaluate the indices from different perspectives.

This Overview contains the charts and covers:
– SP500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000 – TA and Japanese Candlesticks analysis;
– short and long term charts and forecasts for SP500.

Latest Monthly Analysis (link)

TA & CANDLES

As you can see on these 3-day charts above, the large red candles for DIA, SPY and QQQ were formed yesterday and these candles completed strong bearish Engulfing. The last candle that will be completed on Friday, made a little dent, but it is not sufficient to declare a reversal. The engulfing combos are not canceled that easily.
Speaking about IWM, it seems to be working on a bearish flag/pennant and the combo that it prints is unlikely to lead to the higher prices.

Yes, the daily candles are bullish Engulfing and they suggest that all indices are likely to see the higher prices for at least one more day. However, the Engulfing is considered weak for multiple reasons. One of them is circled – the volume on the green candles is lower on average that the volume of the red candles.
It means that in order to consider a reversal, indices need to produce strong confirmations of their intent, preferably tomorrow.

Technically, all trends are looking southbound and no index has confirmed a closure above 8 EMA.

On a separate note, the volatility VIX registered today several critical events that could help to understand the dynamics. I encourage the subscribers to review them here:
https://investingangles.com/2022/02/15/vix-daily-update-15-02-2022-stockmarket-vxx-investing-trading-volatility/

ELLIOTT WAVES SP500

SPX
Long Term

As the worst bearish formation – Engulfing – already happened on the monthly, the bearish odds are prevailing for this long term bearish scenario that we have tracked since September.
Detailed forecast: https://investingangles.com/2022/01/20/sp500-long-term-forecast-bear-case-20-01-2022-spx-spy-sp500-es_f-elliottwave/

While there is a bullish long term forecast, we are not showing it for very low probability.

SP500 Short Term
We have been tracking these two possible paths since February 7th. The weekly video (link at the end of this post) covers the detailed analysis of the chart below and the line of thought leading to the conclusions. So far, we have not seen an event that would trigger a change.

  1. Purple (primary).
    Main hypothesis – wave C has started.
    The target area: $3230-80; the most probable, calculated by Golden Section – $3248.
    Alt target: $3850.
    Timing for the primary target: March 11-18.
  2. Red.
    SPX makes a more complex wave B. As the character of the current wave down is not 100% clear, there is a substantial chance for this one.
    After today’s move, the purple/red chances are close to 50/50 and we are looking for a confirmation in the next few days.

The chart below – an operative micro count with the description and a level to watch:

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SUMMARY:

MID-LONG TERM FORECAST:
(copy from the previous two weekly analyses)
Expect SP500 to move lower in February, most likely in the second half.
Targets: $3850-3250, or 20-33% loss off the top.
Minimal target – $3850 or 20% loss.

Short Term Forecast:
(copy from yesterday)
The indices are likely to move mostly horizontally or slightly upwards in the next 1-2 days. Expect the move downwards resumed after this pause.

From the Monthly forecast on January 30:
SHORT TERM:
The indices could rally in the next 1-2 weeks, the rally could possibly experience many unexpected movements (see-saw).
Short Term Target: $4500-4680.
Keep in mind that this is an attempt to forecast a wave B, the most unpredictable among the corrective waves.

Link to the Weekly Analyses

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