Baltic Dry Index – Monthly Update
The BDI is often viewed as a leading indicator of economic activity because changes in the index reflect supply and demand for important materials used in manufacturing. In the majority of cases, the index is well correlated with the market moves and is considered a harbinger of the Market moves.
In our monthly update we evaluate the index from the perspective of technical signals, candle formations and Elliott Waves.
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Everything In Gold
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Treasuries: US10Y, TLT, IEF
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Volatility Index Daily
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Dollar Index
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Nasdaq
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Special Studies
CANDLES
After a strong rally in November, BDI showed the signs of sharp reversal last week. Several daily frames flipped bearish with confirmations. The weekly made a very strong Dark Cloud Cover and the 10D candles look like catching it.
If the weekly is confirmed next week and 10D forms a strong bearish combo, BDI will reverse mid term.
Elliott Waves
A very sharp rally in November made me to change the structures. If the reversal is confirmed, BDI has a chance to enter a very long rangebound period, possibly of a rectangular shape.
Summary:
BDI signals a reversal. If it is confirmed next week, we should expect a period of declining economic activity at the beginning of 2024.
