$BTC – Weekly Update with Monthly Preview –
The above monthly tf can close with a bullish posture if price closes over $95,128.88 at monthly close. A closure above this number will not negate the bearish confirmed pivot on this tf, but it will be a good start to potentially filling out this white path higher. Should Bulls fail to create a bullish pivot from this region, then this orange corrective path becomes more realized.
CANDLES
The above weekly tf is trying to flip bullish. The 8/20 EMA is crossed bullish, and if Bulls can keep closing price above this cross, then it supports this white path higher. Note how price has yet to close above this large red candle and the potential previous hanging man candle, so until price can close a weekly tf above $96,515.41, then Bears are firmly in control of price action.
For those that have been following these threads, the above 10D tf is likely one of the more important tfs for BTC atm. Should price close over $99,517.52 by Wednesday’s close, then this tf will confirm a bullish pivot higher, and one should prepare for this white path higher; IF price closes below this level, then Bears might have a few tricks up their sleeves, and one should prepare for the potential of a few hard down days.
The above 3D will also close on Wednesday, if it closes below $87,077.17, then this would effectively negate any short-term Bullish posture. The bullish implications on this tf will not be fully realized until the 10D tf can flip bullish, so this tf is mostly for a Bearish confirmation.
The above daily tf is basing sideways. There isn’t a ton of info to glean from this tf aside from that the 50/100 and 50/200 “Death Crosses” are still in effect, with the 100/200 “Death Cross” close to occurring.
TA/EW
12hr tf zoomed out above for RSI reference – note how this tf likes to move RSI from overbought to oversold – this is very likely what’s about to unfold over the course of the next few days/weeks.
The wave higher out of the recent lows appears more corrective in nature, so this gives more support to the above orange path lower, but if price can find some support in this red region ($82,000 – $85,000), then there is potential to move higher towards $100,000. IF this scenario unfolds, then this $100,000 region could provide a strong pivot lower, so keep this option in mind.
Should this orange path lower unfold, then EW suggests the decline should last most of May with an ideal target near $50,000 with $60,000 being the upper end and $35,000 being the lower end of the target range.
A break below $86,491.40 (see below) would effectively eliminate any impulsive path out of the recent lows – should this break occur, then odds lean towards seeing a lower low in the not too distant future.
SUMMARY
While some lower tf candles are bullish, BTC has not put in a very constructive impulse higher out of its recent lows. This inability likely suggests price action is more corrective in nature, and one should prepare for the potential for lower lows.
There are very important candle closures happening throughout this week, so how those candles close should shine some light into the next paths we will explore.
Should price close over $99,517.52 by Wednesday’s close, then the 10D tf will confirm a bullish pivot higher, and one should prepare for this white path higher; IF price closes below this level, then Bears might have a few tricks up their sleeves, and one should prepare for the potential of a few hard down days.
Odds favor this larger degree orange path or some version of it playing out – the white path is still valid until price falls below $69,000.
GLTA!
