SP500 – Daily Analysis

CANDLES

The final hour of trading today flipped many charts. What had been solidly bullish setups for SPX on the daily and multiple hourly frames turned into bearish formations. This sharp shift raises the risk of continued downside into tomorrow.

At the same time, Friday’s closure presents a key opportunity for SPX to establish a mid-term bottom on both the weekly and 8-day frames—provided it closes above the noted levels. A failure to do so will leave those frames with firmly bearish odds.

Short-term odds are neutral with a bearish tilt, while long-term odds remain firmly bearish.

S&P 500

The index has possibly completed the final wave of the rally as an ending diagonal, and the current move down shows strong potential to develop into an impulse. We should have much more clarity within the next 24 hours. The most impactful scenario would be the red path, with wave (iii) unfolding tomorrow.

SUMMARY

SPX was unable to sustain bullish momentum throughout the day and now faces a high risk of forming a topping pattern—one that would align with both technical indicators and Elliott Wave analysis, particularly if the current move down develops into an impulse.

Importantly, a significant decision is expected tomorrow, as multiple candle formations across key time frames will close. These closures may provide the confirmation—or rejection—needed to define the next major move.

The monthly MACD bearish cross, along with other long-term technical indicators, continues to support the broader bear market outlook. If momentum shifts decisively toward the bears by week’s end, it could mark a critical turning point.

Happy Trading!