Nasdaq – Weekly Analysis
Just three weeks ago, I pointed out Nasdaq’s readiness to reclaim $20,000. It executed nicely and the question now what is next.
In this report, we take a deeper dive into the latest developments across multiple time frames, uncovering critical candlestick patterns, emerging trend shifts, and Elliott Wave scenarios that could shape the next major move. With momentum building and technical signals sending mixed messages, the stage is set for an explosive outcome — in either direction.
Let’s break it down and see what the charts are really telling us.
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MACD
This MACD chapter was written on March 8 and I will keep it as is for long-term reference.
On Friday, March 7, Nasdaq registered a significant bearish signal—a 15-day MACD bearish cross of record magnitude, exceeding the 2022 level by approximately 10%. A statistical estimate suggests this could lead to a potential decline of around 42% over the next 2 to 4 years.
While history doesn’t always repeat itself, the implications of this signal are concerning. If the pattern follows a 2020-style selloff, Nasdaq could reach $13,000 much sooner than expected. Hopefully, this time will be different, but the risk of a prolonged downturn remains on the table.
For reference, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell are all aligned on the 15-day MACD, reinforcing the broader bearish momentum. Dow Jones, however, is slightly behind, suggesting it may be less impacted. This would be consistent with historical trends, as blue-chip stocks typically exhibit greater stability during market downturns.
The Nasdaq recorded a monthly MACD bearish cross, an event even more significant than the one recently recorded on the 15-day frame, in the closing hours of March, joining Russell. A bear market has started. The question is how long will it take.
So far, the long-term perspective remains unchanged. Nasdaq (NQ) triggered a monthly MACD bearish cross in March and further expanded it in April. There’s now a fair chance that this signal could be reinforced with a 2-month MACD cross in May or June, doubling down on the long-term bearish outlook.
CANDLES
Nasdaq printed a remarkable sequence of candles this week, offering valuable insight into the current battle between bulls and bears. Bulls made a strong effort to avoid a Bearish Engulfing of Thursday’s doji—but ultimately failed. As a result, momentum broke down across the 3-day and weekly frames, both of which ended with bearish candles. While these require confirmation, the tone has clearly shifted.
The most important signal, however, may come from the 15-day futures candle closing on Monday. If it holds at the current level or higher, it will likely form a strong reversal candle—potentially marking the end of the recent correction. On the other hand, if the futures close below the high of the previous candle, it would signal a loss of bullish momentum and elevate the risk of a reversal.
Friday’s Bearish Engulfing on the daily frame adds weight to the bear case, possibly marking the end of a 15-day bullish run. Don’t forget, April’s monthly close was decisively bearish, and longer-term odds could assert themselves at any time.
Monday level to watch: $NQ – 20,044.25.
Elliott Waves
No change to the long term chart.
Mid Term
Nasdaq has formed a clearly corrective wave off the bottom, most likely shaping as a zigzag—either completing wave (B) in red or serving as the first leg of a larger corrective structure in purple. The top could be already formed as the first micro wave off the top more resembles an impulse. However, we need a larger one to confirm direction.
SUMMARY
Long-term odds remain increasingly bearish for Nasdaq, with the monthly and larger frames continuing to show weakness. Meanwhile, the index has staged a notable rally on the short- and mid-term frames and still holds a chance to push higher. The key moment arrives on Monday, when the 10-day and 15-day futures frames will close. A bullish finish would likely establish a solid mid- to long-term bottom. Conversely, a failure to hold will likely mark the end of the current rally and reinforce the broader bearish setup.
Currently, Nasdaq stands neutral to bearish in the short term, with the long-term outlook firmly bearish.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the 23%+ bounce off the lows appears corrective in nature, consistent with a developing wave (B) structure as outlined in the purple scenario. However, the red path—signaling a direct move lower—remains a valid alternative.
At this stage, Nasdaq carries a bearish bias heading into Monday and Tuesday.
Key level to watch Monday: $NQ – 20,044.25.
Happy Trading!
