SP500 – Daily Analysis

CANDLES

The market shrugged off weakness in the Dow Jones and Russell, negating their respective bearish candles. The odds are bullish, and the indices are on track to form a bottom on the weekly frame—the last of the mid-term frames. If successful tomorrow, a path to higher highs will open.

The only remaining concern is technical: the monthly MACD bearish cross, which still needs to be negated.

There is uncertainty around the daily closures of the sectors and some large-cap stocks. A sudden bout of weakness in Technology, Financials, and Industrials at the close, along with bearish closures in Meta and Amazon, could weigh on tomorrow’s market. The risk is elevated.

The S&P 500 holds a neutral short-term outlook, remains bullish mid-term, and stays bearish in the long-term view. The very bearish candles on the monthly, bi-monthly (2-month), and quarterly (4-month) frames remain unchallenged.

Overall, the S&P 500 and other indices are bullish—until negated.

S&P 500

All three counts remain on the table, but the green is now primary.

A break below the blue horizontal line will invalidate the potential green impulsive structure, leaving a diagonal as the only viable path for any continued advance.

SUMMARY

SPX is bullish in the short- and mid-term unless clearly negated.

It’s also important to keep in mind that long-term technical conditions—such as the monthly MACD bearish cross and other structural indicators—still support the broader bear market scenario. These signals carry significant weight and are not easily reversed. Hopefully, the market finds a way to counter them in the two weeks that remain in May.

Happy Trading!