Nasdaq – Weekly Analysis
Just four weeks ago, we outlined Nasdaq’s rally toward the $21.4–20.0k target. After making 17+%, the index has arrived—and it’s sitting right at the top. Everything looks calm on the surface, but history shows that this is often when the real moves begin.
In this report, we dig deep into the technical landscape across multiple time frames, uncovering key candlestick patterns, shifting trends, and Elliott Wave structures that hint at what’s next. With momentum pushing in both directions and signals growing more complex, the setup points to an explosive move—up or down.
And then there’s the afterhours closure on Friday—something unusual happened that could change everything. Details inside.
Let’s decode the charts and find out what they’re really saying.
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CANDLES
Afterhours Puzzle
Friday’s closure was nothing short of puzzling. Throughout the session, the Nasdaq climbed steadily, wrapping up the week with a healthy bullish candle. The daily chart printed a slightly bearish Inside candle, but it needed strong confirmation to carry real weight.
Then came the afterhours surprise. In just a few minutes, the index dropped 100 points—enough to flip several hourly frames bearish and significantly raise the odds for a bearish daily closure.
Looking at the major large caps that dominate the Nasdaq, the picture is equally, if not more, concerning. TSLA fell around 3%, GOOGL 2.5%, NVDA 2.4%, Berkshire about 1%, and others followed suit. A close inspection of Tesla’s 3-minute chart reveals a clear impulsive wave down.
This move effectively shifted the daily candles for many of these stocks from neutral-bullish to sharply bearish reversal patterns. The question now is: was this just a technical shakeout before another leg higher—or the start of a much deeper reversal?
We’ll likely get the first clues as early as Sunday night when futures open. Monday could bring the real answer.
Don’t forget, April’s monthly close was decisively bearish, and longer-term odds could assert themselves at any time.
Elliott Waves
Mid Term
Nasdaq has formed a clearly corrective wave off the bottom, most likely taking the shape of a zigzag—either completing wave (B) in red or acting as the first leg of a larger corrective structure in purple. While the potential green impulse scenario remains on the table, I remain highly skeptical of the impulsiveness within its major waves.
Micro
As discussed on Thursday, Nasdaq may have completed its first impulsive wave down and could develop wave (ii)/(b), which may take a few days to unfold (Friday-Monday). There’s now a possibility that the index finished wave c of (ii)/(b) as an ending diagonal and already completed wave i of (iii) down within minutes afterhours. As noted earlier, wave (iii) has the potential to be significant—possibly resulting in a 2.5–3% drop from the recent top.
SUMMARY
Long-term odds remain bearish for Nasdaq, with the monthly and larger time frames continuing to show weakness following April’s closure. At the same time, the index has staged a notable rally on the short- and mid-term frames and still retains the potential to move higher. During this rally, Nasdaq expanded bullish momentum across the weekly, 10-day, and 15-day frames, improving the odds for a bullish monthly close. If this momentum holds through the end of May, the long-term outlook could flip to bullish.
Friday’s afterhours closure added a layer of complexity. If market forces have made their move and opened the door for bears, the signs are there—and we’re prepared. Monday’s price action and closure will likely reveal the direction.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the structure aligns with a potential strong bearish reversal. The character of the waves down has shifted noticeably, both for the index and for several major large caps.
For now, Nasdaq stands neutral as we wait to interpret the recent developments. The long-term view remains bearish.
Happy Trading!
