SP500 – Daily Analysis

CANDLES

The indices closed with bullish candles across multiple time frames, signaling the potential for a continued rally. The weekly chart is attempting to form an 8/20 EMA bullish cross, which could mark the beginning of a mid- to long-term bull market.

However, two notable technical concerns remain: the monthly MACD bearish cross, which has yet to be negated, and a looming 100/200 DMA bearish cross that could weigh on the broader outlook.

Overall, the S&P 500 and other major indices remain bullish—until clearly negated.

S&P 500

All three counts remain on the table, and, after today’s closure and some technical signals, I don’t have sufficient support for the green as primary.

A break below the blue horizontal line will invalidate the potential green impulsive structure, leaving a diagonal as the only viable path for any continued advance. A move to an ATH will likely invalidate both purple and red counts.

SUMMARY

SPX remains bullish in the short- and mid-term unless clearly negated.

However, it’s important to remember that long-term technical conditions—such as the monthly MACD bearish cross and other structural indicators—continue to support the broader bear market scenario. These signals carry considerable weight and are not easily reversed. Ideally, the market would counter them by the end of May.

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