SP500 – Daily Analysis
In this report, we take a structured, multi-angle look at the index — analyzing price action through candlestick patterns, technical indicators, and Elliott Wave structures to assess whether the move reflects a broader trend shift or remains within the boundaries of an ongoing setup.
As always, our analysis focuses on technical evidence across multiple time frames to provide a clear, objective view of the current market structure.
Exclusive analyses covering the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell, and select global indices are available for our Index Focus and Ultimate members.
CANDLES
The S&P 500 and the other three major indices confirmed a reversal on the daily frames today, causing significant technical damage to the larger time frames. The S&P 500 formed a bearish Kicking pattern on the 3-day chart and now has a fair chance of printing either a Harami or an Inside Down formation on the weekly by Friday.
The odds are bearish until clearly negated.
S&P 500
All three counts remain on the table, but the odds for the green count have decreased further.
A break below the blue horizontal line at $5528.78 (ES) would invalidate the potential green impulsive structure, leaving a diagonal as the only viable path for any continued advance. Conversely, a move to a new all-time high would likely invalidate both the purple and red counts.
Below is the outline for the first sizeable impulse down.
SUMMARY
SPX and other major indices flipped bearish, with strong odds of extending the bearish momentum onto larger time frames.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the index may have completed an ending diagonal—a formation often followed by sharp reversals. The current micro wave down has a high probability of evolving into an impulse of a higher degree, which would signal the start of a prolonged corrective phase.
It’s also important to remember that long-term technical conditions—such as the ongoing monthly MACD bearish cross and other structural indicators—continue to support the broader bear market scenario. These signals carry significant weight and are not easily reversed. If they remain intact through the end of May, it would likely confirm an extended bear market.
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