Dow Jones – Weekly Analysis
Last Friday’s signals in the Dow Jones Industrial Average were more than just noise—they were clear harbingers of what is now taking shape. What seemed like subtle technical shifts have since evolved into meaningful structural changes, confirming the significance of last week’s action.
In this week’s report, we take the analysis deeper, examining how these developments are shaping the broader trend across multiple time frames. We also revisit April’s monthly close in light of this week’s movement and assess whether the unfolding pattern suggests continued weakness—or a more profound transition.
A key addition to this week’s outlook is the Special Study posted on May 23, which provides critical context and serves as an instrumental foundation for understanding the current setup.
Most of the insights in this report will not be covered anywhere else. With momentum shifting and long-term signals beginning to align, this could mark a pivotal moment. Let’s unpack what the data is truly revealing.
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CANDLES
The bull-to-bear transformation in the final minutes of last week proved to be a crucial turning point. Strong bearish closures followed, with momentum now extending into the 3-day and weekly frames. Notably, the weekly chart hasn’t been able to form a bottom since April, so the broader outlook remains unchanged.
The odds are bearish until clearly negated, and the monthly candle is currently shaping into a bearish signal. The MACD bearish cross also has a strong chance of remaining intact through May—further reinforcing the downside bias.
At this stage, the Dow is bearish across all time frames.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
The index has possibly formed an ending diagonal for wave c of A (red), with wave c now equal in length to wave a—creating a textbook flat or zigzag structure. The index moved down for the whole week and either already formed or very close to printing a significant impulsive wave down.
Dow Jones Transportation
The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) has possibly completed wave 4. If it is confirmed next week, expect a move toward the target area.
SUMMARY:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) continues to carry bearish odds across all time frames.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the index may have completed either wave (B) in purple or wave A of a larger wave (B) in red—both scenarios unfolding within a broader corrective structure that began with the impulsive wave (A) down in January. The current impulsive move to the downside increases the likelihood that wave (C) in purple is now underway.
For a detailed breakdown of critical confirmation points, potential targets, and timing projections, please refer to the Special Study published on May 23, which outlines the key structural milestones in this developing setup.
Happy Trading!
