Nasdaq – Weekly Analysis
In this report, we dig deep into the technical landscape across multiple time frames, uncovering key candlestick patterns, shifting trends, and Elliott Wave structures that hint at what’s next. With momentum pushing in both directions and signals growing more complex, the setup points to an explosive move—up or down.
Let’s decode the charts and find out what they’re really saying.
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CANDLES
The afterhours drop on Friday, May 16, was likely the trigger. It flipped multiple smaller time frames—and even the weekly—into bearish territory. If the weekly Harami is confirmed next week, NQ could be setting up for a red June and, potentially, a red summer.
Notably, NQ remains the only major index that has not yet made a 100/200 DMA bearish cross. Without a strong rally starting Monday, that cross is likely to print next week. Adding to the pressure is a looming bearish MACD cross on the daily, which could accelerate downside momentum if triggered.
Another critical event next week will be the monthly close. A failure to close above the March high will keep long-term odds bearish. But if the bulls manage to push through, it could open the path to a new all-time high—and beyond.
As for the large caps, most ended the week with bearish combinations that now await confirmation. Apple stood out with the most concerning setup: a strong bearish continuation candle on the weekly and a Three Black Crows formation on the 2-day frame.
The odds are bearish heading into the start of the week, but the market has yet to make its final decision.
Don’t forget, April’s monthly close was decisively bearish, and longer-term odds could assert themselves at any time.
Elliott Waves
Mid Term
Nasdaq has formed a clearly corrective wave off the bottom, most likely taking the shape of a zigzag—either completing wave (B) in red or acting as the first leg of a larger corrective structure in purple. While the potential green impulse scenario remains on the table, I remain highly skeptical of the impulsiveness within its major waves.
Micro
Nasdaq has a fair chance to continue forming an impulse of a higher degree. To validate this scenario, it must produce a clear and sustained impulsive wave (iii), approximately following the outlined path.
If this wave fails to materialize as expected, it would likely signal the start of a reversal, and we would begin preparing for a potential rally instead.
SUMMARY
Long-term odds remain bearish for Nasdaq, with the monthly and larger time frames continuing to reflect weakness following April’s close. While the index rallied through most of May and flipped several smaller frames bullish, signs now suggest a return to the broader bearish path is underway—though not yet confirmed. The upcoming monthly closure will be key, and we know the level that will define the outcome.
Technically, the index became grossly overstretched, and a pullback appears imminent. The main question now is timing. If the pullback unfolds without recovery next week, the bearish odds are likely to be locked in for the coming months. However, if market forces can hold the line through the week and initiate the pullback in June, the setup could still allow for a green June.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current decline must evolve into a clear impulsive structure to increase the probability of a continued move lower. So far, the wave is developing, but more confirmation is needed.
As it stands, Nasdaq leans slightly bearish heading into next week. The long-term view remains bearish unless clearly invalidated.
Happy Trading!
