Special Study
The main focus of today’s discussion is Nasdaq—its potential path over the long weekend and the broader long-term setup. As always, we’re zooming in on the small Elliott Waves, stepping back to examine the big fractals, and layering in key technical signals for a full, helicopter-level perspective.
This written-only report, exclusive to Ultimate subscribers, uncovers what the charts may be quietly building beneath the surface. Please note: the long term part of this analysis will not be featured in any video update—at least for several weeks.
Elliott Waves & Candles
The strong green opening of futures today invalidated the prospect of an impulsive wave down. However, the upward move that followed appears corrective, not impulsive—prompting a reevaluation of the wave structure off the top. Based on the updated analysis, it looks like NQ may have completed a Leading Diagonal. If this hypothesis is correct, the current wave up is a zigzag, which may extend toward the level of origin—without crossing it. A move to a new high would invalidate this entire bearish setup.
If the structure plays out as outlined, wave (iii) down could be spectacular—potentially unfolding right into the end of May.
It’s important to keep in mind that Nasdaq has already formed very strong bearish candles on the 2-month and Quarterly frames. A monthly failure, as previously discussed, would only elevate the long-term bearish odds. The May monthly close will be a crucial milestone.
With a very bearish long-term perspective in mind, I took a closer look at the Nasdaq chart and spotted an interesting fractal that seems to have solid technical backing—a potential Head & Shoulders pattern. And as they say, a picture is worth a thousand words.
If this pattern plays out, Nasdaq could be staring down a possible 50% decline over the next year or so. Naturally, such a move wouldn’t be a straight line—we’d likely see multiple 10–15% swings along the way, both up and down.
Big moves often start quietly. Time to join the Live Trade Room?
And I hope I am wrong…
Happy Trading!
