Natural Gas – Monthly Analysis
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CANDLES
Natural Gas closed May with bearish candles on the short- and mid-term frames, signaling increased pressure in the near term. However, the monthly candle remained within the range of the prior month, suggesting a possible consolidation phase rather than a decisive breakdown. This opens the door for a potential continuation higher once the consolidation resolves.
For now, Natural Gas holds a short-term bearish outlook until a confirmed reversal emerges. The long-term view remains bullish, though it is edging closer to neutral pending further signals.
MACD 2M
(no change here)
At the start of May, Natural Gas formed a 2-month MACD bullish cross—a rare and significant technical event. If this cross holds through the end of June, it could signal the beginning of an extended bullish cycle, potentially lasting several periods or even multiple years.
Once the signal is confirmed, I will conduct a statistical analysis on this and related indicators to better understand the historical implications and expected outcomes.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Road Map / Flag
There are no changes to the prospective targets for the road map.
Mid Term
For the mid-term outlook, two potential scenarios appear most probable. The red path suggests that Natural Gas is developing an impulse for wave 3, while the green path allows for the formation of a larger leading diagonal. At this stage, the red path holds slightly better odds based on the current structure.
Natural Gas is likely approaching a bottom—either completing wave 2 of iii or extending wave ii, depending on whether it breaks below the key horizontal support line. The next few sessions will be crucial in determining which of these paths unfolds.
SUMMARY:
Natural Gas closed the month with a neutral-to-bullish reversal candle, supported by steadily building bullish technical momentum. If the developing bullish MACD signal on the long-term frame is confirmed by the end of June, it could mark the beginning of a sustained, multi-month rally.
However, several smaller time frames closed with bearish candles, and short- to mid-term odds will remain bearish until a clear and confirmed reversal pattern or signal emerges.
Happy Trading!
