$GDX, – Mid Term Forecast
What’s next for gold miners? The GDX and GDXJ Mid-Term Forecast offers a strategic perspective on where these ETFs may be headed as we move deeper into 2025. After months of volatility and shifting sentiment, the gold mining sector stands at a critical juncture—with the potential for powerful moves in either direction.
In this exclusive analysis, we explore the broader setup for GDX and GDXJ, uncovering the hidden signals and structural patterns that could shape the path forward. Whether you’re a long-term investor or a tactical trader, this deep dive will help position you ahead of the curve.
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CANDLES
GDX closed the week with an ominous set of bearish signals. The daily frame confirmed a reversal, the 2-day chart formed a classic Tower Top, and the weekly closure delivered a Gravestone Doji—together composing a near-textbook setup for an extended pullback. This formation is even more concerning technically than the bearish signal cluster observed in mid-April.
Unless strongly negated, the technical picture now favors a continued move lower, with a preliminary target zone in the $40–44 range. The miners may be heading into a storm.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Long Term
Mid Term
When we step back and examine both the long- and mid-term charts, a striking possibility emerges: GDX may have completed—or is on the verge of completing—not one but two overlapping ending diagonals. One would mark the end of wave C of (B), and the other would complete wave 5 of C. This rare dual-diagonal setup typically signals a major reversal, and if confirmed, it could trigger a sharp and swift decline toward the origin of the structure at $21.52—a potential 60% drop from current levels.
While this is not the only scenario, it is technically viable and carries significant implications. The best-case outcome would be a defense of the green line at $36.26, preserving the chance for a larger impulsive rally. But unless that support holds, GDX may be facing its most critical test in years.
Short Term
At the micro level, GDX has minimally met its target, and the risk of a reversal has increased. Although a push higher remains technically possible, the recent candlestick formations and underlying technical signals suggest that the probability of continued upside is diminishing. Caution is warranted as the setup increasingly favors a pullback.
GDXJ – Elliott Wave
I recently began monitoring GDXJ and found its Elliott Wave structure to be strikingly similar to that of GDX—perhaps even more convincing when evaluating wave integrity and internal proportions. The symmetry and clarity of the wave formations lend additional confidence to the bearish scenario. If GDXJ confirms a reversal within the next 1–2 weeks, it could mark the beginning of a substantial correction. The likely path points to a loss of around 40%, with a worst-case scenario projecting a decline of up to 64%.
SUMMARY
The gold miners have shifted decisively bearish, with GDX and GDXJ both flashing strong reversal signals. GDX closed the week with a powerful bearish combo—Daily confirmation, a 2D Tower Top, and a Gravestone Doji on the weekly. These signals are even stronger than those seen in mid-April.
When examining the long- and mid-term charts, both ETFs appear to be completing—if not already having completed—dual ending diagonals: wave C of (B) and wave 5 of C. If confirmed, this setup typically leads to a sharp decline to the origin, which for GDX means a potential 60% drop.
Notably, GDXJ mirrors GDX’s Elliott Wave structure and arguably presents an even clearer case. If it confirms a reversal in the coming 1–2 weeks, the projected losses could range from 40% to as much as 64%. The risk is real—be prepared.
Happy Trading!
