Natural Gas – Weekly Analysis

CANDLES

Natural Gas closed the daily candle just $0.002 above the necessary level for forming a clean Rising 3 Methods. At the same time, it closed the week with a solid Inside Up combo. The odds are strong bullish and a rally higher is almost guaranteed.

The long-term view remains bullish

MACD 2M
(no change here)

At the start of May, Natural Gas formed a 2-month MACD bullish cross—a rare and significant technical event. If this cross holds through the end of June, it could signal the beginning of an extended bullish cycle, potentially lasting several periods or even multiple years.

Once the signal is confirmed, I will conduct a statistical analysis on this and related indicators to better understand the historical implications and expected outcomes.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Road Map / Flag

There are no changes to the prospective targets for the road map.

Mid Term

For the mid-term outlook, two potential scenarios appear most probable. The red path suggests that Natural Gas is developing an impulse for wave 3, while the green path allows for the formation of a larger leading diagonal. Based on the current structure, the red path holds slightly better odds.

At the micro level, Natural Gas maintains an impulsive structure for the wave currently in development. The overall outlook remains unchanged.

SUMMARY:

On Friday, Natural Gas closed above the watershed level by just $0.002, and it was enough to shift the outlook from bullish to super bullish. The commodity is now considered bullish on the short- and mid-term frames until reversed.

If the developing bullish MACD signal on the long-term frame confirms by the end of June, it could mark the beginning of a sustained, multi-month rally.

Happy Trading!