Volatility – Weekly Analysis
In this weekly report, we focus on what’s coming next, examining the technical conditions that link the index to market events. We’ll break down the latest signals and assess the underlying momentum dynamics driving volatility.
This exclusive Volatility Index analysis is available only to our Ultimate and Strategy members. A must-read for anyone looking to stay ahead of the next market shift.
CANDLES
Daily
Weekly
Volatility Index ended the week with mixed and often contradicting signals across various instruments and timeframes.
VIX printed a Bearish Hammer on the daily, while VX futures likely formed a bullish continuation candle. Yet, both instruments leaned bearish on the 12-hour frame. On the weekly, US VIX recorded a fresh 8/20 EMA bearish cross—now in sync with SP500 VIX—and printed a Harami candle, still pending confirmation. In contrast, other volatility instruments showed more conviction, closing the week with bullish engulfing patterns. Despite the mixed signals, the 15D and monthly frames stayed firmly bearish.
In such a complex setup, my theory is that mid- and long-term volatility remains bearish, while short- and mid-term action was temporarily shaken by recent headlines. It likely needs a few sessions to stabilize and resume the prevailing course. Expect heightened volatility early next week, with a fair chance of normalization into the latter part of the week.
The flag formation discussed earlier continues to be a valid scenario.
Happy Trading!
