Natural Gas – Weekly Analysis
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CANDLES
Natural Gas closed the week with mixed candles and no clear directional signal. The short- and mid-term odds are neutral, with a slight tilt toward the bearish side.
The long-term view (2M and higher) remains bullish.
MACD 2M
(no change here)
At the start of May, Natural Gas formed a 2-month MACD bullish cross—a rare and significant technical event. If this cross holds through the end of June, it could signal the beginning of an extended bullish cycle, potentially lasting several periods or even multiple years.
Once the signal is confirmed, I will conduct a statistical analysis on this and related indicators to better understand the historical implications and expected outcomes.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Road Map / Flag
There are no changes to the prospective targets for the road map.
Mid Term
For the mid-term outlook, two potential scenarios appear most probable. The red path suggests that Natural Gas is developing an impulse for wave 3, while the green path allows for the formation of a larger leading diagonal. Based on the current structure, the red path holds slightly better odds.
At the micro level, the bearish flag setup remains the primary path.
SUMMARY:
After Friday’s close, Natural Gas is neutral to slightly bearish on the short- and mid-term frames, potentially signaling a move down after completing a bearish flag.
At the same time, the long-term outlook remains bullish. If the developing bullish MACD signal on the long-term frame confirms by the end of June, it could mark the beginning of a sustained, multi-month rally.
Happy Trading!
