Natural Gas – Quarterly Review
Those tracking Natural Gas over the past few months know it rarely moves quietly for long. As this quarter draws to a close, we take a closer look at how the larger trends have shaped up, what the technicals are signaling, and which scenarios are most likely to unfold next for Natty in the months ahead.
CANDLES
Natural Gas surprised yet again. After a super bullish closure on Friday, it flipped dramatically with a super bearish reversal candle on Monday—classic “Widow Maker” behavior. Despite the whipsaw, the large time frames closed close to expectations. The monthly likely formed (or is forming) a Ladder Bottom right along the 200 MMA. The 2M closed its second consolidating candle on bullish technicals. The quarterly printed a Dark Cloud Cover but did so on very weak technicals, limiting its weight. Notably, the semiannual closed bullish above the 8 and 20 EMA for the first time since 2022.
All in, while the short-term outlook is clearly bearish, the long-term odds are turning bullish—though the shift is happening slowly and will likely come with plenty of sharp swings along the way.
MACD 2M
At the start of May, Natural Gas formed a 2-month MACD bullish cross—a rare and significant technical event. Despite the pullback in June, this cross was not only confirmed but actually expanded, highlighting a strong bullish undercurrent that shouldn’t be overlooked. Natty is now possibly forming a Rising Three Methods pattern on the 2M frame, adding another layer of support to the longer-term bullish case.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
There are no changes to the prospective targets for the road map.
Short Term
Natty has possibly completed or about to complete an extended wave (ii) as a flat (rectangle) and is now setting up for a rally. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the price increase by 30–50% over the next few months if this structure holds.
SUMMARY:
After the semiannual close, Natural Gas is bullish on the long-term frames, signaling higher prices ahead. However, the short-term outlook is bearish, while the mid-term remains bearish-neutral, awaiting a clear confirmation of direction.
Multiple technical signals on the 2-month frame and larger time frames continue to support the hypothesis of higher prices as we move closer to the end of the year.
Happy Trading!
